[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 15N19W TO 3N19W.
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A
SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK...THUS THE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
BEING LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE.

A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 8N38W TO 1N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

ANOTHER HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS SE OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N55W TO 2N56W MOVING W 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SAHARAN DUST LAYER
OUTBREAK...THUS LACK OF CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS PANAMA WITH AXIS
FROM 13N80W TO 4N79W MOVING W 15 KT.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR
10N14W TO 9MN17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 6N21W TO 3N34W. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 4N40W TO 2N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 100 NM S OF AXIS FROM 25W-28W AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS
FROM 40W-43W

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF AND
PROVIDES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ACROSS
THE EASTERN GULF. THE EARLIER SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS
E OF THE TROUGH HAVE DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR ACROSS THE
GULF WITH STABLE CONDITIONS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO S TEXAS PROVIDING SE WIND FLOW OF 5-10
KT TO MOST OF THE AREA. RIDGING AND MOSTLY RETURN FLOW WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
BASE EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN EARLIER HEAVY SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ACROSS CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS HAVE DISSIPATED. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS MOVING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...A DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER.
TRADES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 70W-80W...EXCEPT 25-30 KT ALONG THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE TRADES OF 15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SAT AFTERNOON.

...HISPANIOLA...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO INFLUENCED BY A DRY AIRMASS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OFF THE COAST OF S AND CENTRAL FLORIDA.
OTHERWISE...THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM 31N56W TO 27N61W TO THE STRAITS
OF FLORIDA. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS A
PORTION OF THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N42W TO 22N56W. OTHERWISE SURFACE HIGH
PRES WITH AXIS FROM 32N26W TO 23N49W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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