[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N22W TO 3N22W MOVING W 15 KT.
DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN DUST LAYER OUTBREAK IS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT HINDERING CONVECTION.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N51W TO 2N51W MOVING W 15-20 KT. DRY AIR
FROM A SAHARAN AIR DUST OUTBREAK IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH SUPPORTS THE LACK OF CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER VENEZUELA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N71W
TO 6N70W MOVING W-NW 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND
ARE FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 67W-70W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR
11N15W. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N23W TO
7N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
7N26W TO 01N50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NE GULF. TROUGHING ALOFT IS
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION ENHANCED BY LIFTING FROM THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS THE EASTERN GULF INTO WESTERN FLORIDA FROM 23N-
27N E OF 83W WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED.
OTHERWISE...OVERALL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS MAINTAINING DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO S TEXAS PROVIDES S-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-
15 KT. RIDGING AND MOSTLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
BASE EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE A
DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. ELY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT NEAT THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...WITH SEAS 8-12 FT. E-SE WINDS 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE TRADES OF 15 KT
PREVAILS ACROSS GREATER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO INFLUENCED BY A DRY AIRMASS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM 1020 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 26N66W AND A 1020 MB HIGH
NEAR 32N60W. FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
CENTRAL ATLC WITH ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
ANALYZED FROM 32N40W TO 24N55W. OTHERWISE A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
32N26W TO 24N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS

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