[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON
TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N21W TO 3N21W MOVING W 15 KT.
DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN DUST LAYER OUTBREAK IS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT HINDERING CONVECTION.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 16N50W TO 1N50W MOVING W 15-20 KT. DRY AIR
FROM A SAHARAN AIR DUST OUTBREAK IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WAVE
ENVIRONMENT WHICH SUPPORT THE LACK OF CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER VENEZUELA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 13N70W
TO 5N70W MOVING W-NW NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 65W-69W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST NEAR
12N16W. IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N22W TO
5N29W TO 3N34W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 3N34W TO THE EQUATOR AT 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NE GULF. TROUGHING ALOFT IS
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF CONVECTION ENHANCED BY LIFTING FROM THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS THE EASTERN GULF INTO WESTERN FLORIDA FROM 23N-
28N E OF 84W WHERE HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED.
OTHERWISE...OVERALL DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS MAINTAINING DRY
AND STABLE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS
FROM A PAIR OF HIGH PRES LOCATED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO
THE GULF AND PROVIDES S-SE WIND FLOW OF 5-15 KT. RIDGING AND
MOSTLY RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH
BASE EXTENDING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. FARTHER EAST...MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHERE EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND CENTRAL HAITI HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE A
DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER. ELY WINDS 20-25 KT ARE ACROSS THE S
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT NEAT THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA...WITH SEAS 8-12 FT. E-SE WINDS 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WITH SEAS TO 8 FT THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. OTHERWISE TRADES OF 15 KT
PREVAILS ACROSS GREATER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE
WILL ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO INFLUENCED BY A DRY AIRMASS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS PROVIDING FOR AN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SW N ATLC THUS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OTHERWISE...THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL
DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM 1019 MB HIGH PRES NEAR
26N67W AND A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 32N59W. FARTHER EAST...A MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL WITH ASSOCIATED A
STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N42W TO 25N54W WHERE IT STARTS
DISSIPATING TO 25N62W. OTHERWISE A 1025 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 33N24W
WITH A RIDGE TO 22N48W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS


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