[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 121807
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE HAS BEEN
REPOSITIONED BASED ON CURRENT GOES-R PROVING GROUND IMAGERY.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 33W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
FROM 8N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD
INTO FRENCH GUIANA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM POSSIBLE FROM
10N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE ITCZ
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND
60W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W FROM 13N SOUTHWARD INTO COLOMBIA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION
THAT JUST IS RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. NUMEROUS STRONG IS
FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...POSSIBLY MORE RELATED TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 7N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 7N22W TO 4N33W AND 2N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GEORGIA...
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...ACROSS CUBA...INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...FROM 86W WESTWARD.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND IN THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND IN PARTS OF FLORIDA...BETWEEN 76W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND 86W IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N65W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS...TO 24N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...TO 27N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KGVX...KVBS...KMDJ.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON ACROSS THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND
SURROUNDING SMALLER COMMUNITIES...TO BEAUMONT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. HIGH CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND IN THE MOBILE ALABAMA
METROPOLITAN AREA. SCATTERED CLOUD LAYERS ARE MIXED WITH SOME
OBSERVATIONS OF MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS...IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM TALLAHASSEE WESTWARD. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER ARE
BEING EXPERIENCED IN PERRY FLORIDA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS
AND RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA
TO BROOKSVILLE. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED
AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8
FEET...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM 24N84.5W TO 29N78W,

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 70W WESTWARD. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS
RELATED DIRECTLY TO THE GEORGIA-TO-EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 70W WESTWARD.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN PORT-
AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A TROUGH TRAVERSES THE
AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ONE ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA...AND THAT
A SECOND ONE WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS
HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED ATLANTIC
OCEAN RIDGE.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
12/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.99 IN
TRINIDAD...0.65 IN TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS...0.51 IN MERIDA IN
MEXICO...AND 0.02 IN SAN JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 76W AND
80W IN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA...AND ALONG THE BORDER OF
NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 12 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. EXPECT EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 79W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14.5N
BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. A SECOND
AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 83W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AREAS OF MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. A
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 29N48W TO 24N55W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD.

ONE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N59W TO A SECOND 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 27N65W...ACROSS ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO
24N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
27N95W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
SECOND SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 20N41W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...THE 12-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER AND 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 21.5N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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