[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N38W TO 11N35W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THIS LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING LARGE CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AXIS. DRY AIR IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE THAT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N54W TO 08N53W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY A DRY
AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM 07N-09N BETWEEN
51W-56W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N76W TO 12N74W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE AND HAS BECOME
MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THOUGH
SUBTLE...IT IS EVIDENT THROUGH A LONG TERM LOOP OF SATELLITE
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN
74W-78W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N17W TO
09N21W TO 07N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 07N26W TO 07N38W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-11N BETWEEN
09W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N19W TO 04N32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE SE GULF WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR
30N88W SE TO A BASE OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W. MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL LIFTING DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 24N E OF 84W. ELSEWHERE...LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 26N/27N TO THE TEXAS
GULF COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH LIGHTER WINDS NOTED
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E OF 88W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
REGION THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS AIDING TO MAINTAIN AREAS OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
CUBA. FARTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
CENTERED NEAR 09N78W PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 14N
BETWEEN 78W-85W. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TRADEWIND
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH TRADEWINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 25
KT...STRONGEST BETWEEN 67W-78W DUE TO AN INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NW OF THE ISLAND PROVIDING FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON TUESDAY. WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE MORE ENHANCED LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER IN THE DAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO SURFACE
RIDGING...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS PROVIDING FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF
27N W OF 74W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. FARTHER EAST...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 30N59W
THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N50W TO 31N62W.
A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS ARE ALSO ANALYZED SOUTH OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT...ONE FROM 32N47W TO 26N53W AND THE SECOND FROM
31N53W TO 27N61W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE EASTERN-
MOST SURFACE TROUGH...AND FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 53W-62W WITH THE
WESTERN-MOST SURFACE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N31W INFLUENCES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC PROVIDING DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS N OF THE ITCZ REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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