[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N34W TO 16N33W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THIS LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING LARGE CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AXIS. DRY AIR IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
WAVE THAT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N53W TO 10N52W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER CONTINUES TO BE IMPACTED BY A DRY
AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE ITCZ ALONG 04N. AS A
RESULT...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CONFINED FROM 07N-09N
BETWEEN 48W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N73W TO 12N72W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE AND HAS
BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO TRACK OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THOUGH
SUBTLE...IT IS EVIDENT THROUGH A LONG TERM LOOP OF SATELLITE
IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 16N16W TO
15N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N22W TO 07N34W TO 05N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 11W-15W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 18W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE SE GULF WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR SE
TO A BASE OVER WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W. LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL
RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE
MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 26N/27N TO
THE TEXAS GULF COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH LIGHTER WINDS
NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E OF 86W. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS AIDING TO MAINTAIN AREAS OF WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AND
INLAND CUBA. FARTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 11N76W PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S
OF 13N BETWEEN 78W-85W. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED
TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH TRADEWINDS RANGING FROM
15 TO 25 KT...STRONGEST BETWEEN 67W-78W DUE TO AN INCREASED
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
NW OF THE ISLAND PROVIDING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY. WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING AND
INSTABILITY...THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE MORE ENHANCED LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATER IN THE DAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE TO SURFACE
RIDGING...HOWEVER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IS PROVIDING FOR AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF
26N W OF 74W. OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE RIDGE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FARTHER EAST...MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IN THE VICINITY OF 31N61W
THAT SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 33N51W TO 31N60W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT...AND FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 53W-63W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N31W
INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC
PROVIDING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS N OF THE ITCZ REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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