[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 100004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 09 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N31W 9N32W 1N32W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE
TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN EASY TO TRACK AS SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO DEPICT LARGE CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS WAVE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN
30W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS FROM 4N TO
8N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W FROM 10N
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL JUST TO THE EAST OF FRENCH
GUIANA...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THIS IS A LOW LATITUDE
AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH PERTURBATION EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ITCZ FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 47W AND
50W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN BRAZIL FROM 1S TO 1N
BETWEEN 52W AND 55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM 12N SOUTHWARD INTO
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 7N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 69W AND 77W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
16N16W TO 15N19W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 8N23W...AND IT CONTINUES
TO 7N30W 7N34W 7N40W AND 6N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 9N
BETWEEN 10W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM
40W WESTWARD.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 24N86W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
ESPECIALLY FROM 90W EASTWARD. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 90W.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...IS APPARENT IN WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...EXCEPT WITHIN
ABOUT 100 NM OF THE FLORIDA COAST FROM 85W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AND/OR HAVE BEEN IN FLORIDA FROM 25N TO
30N DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.

A SEPARATE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING FROM KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS TEXAS FROM 30N
NORTHWARD. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AND/OR HAVE BEEN
MOVING THROUGH THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM 28N NORTHWARD...
ACROSS LOUISIANA...AND INTO THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
MISSISSIPPI.

A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N84W IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN IS
COMPARATIVELY WEAK IN GENERAL.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KHQI...KGBK...AND KMDJ.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN KINGSVILLE...AND IN ALICE. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED IN VICTORIA...BAY CITY...LIGHT RAIN IS IN
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON...AND IN BEAUMONT. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS...RAIN AND SOME THUNDER...ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...
AND AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING REPORTED IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AT THE MOBILE ALABAMA
DOWNTOWN AIRPORT...IN CRESTVIEW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAIN
ENDED ABOUT AN HOUR AGO IN BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA...AND IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF FORT MYERS. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING
REPORTED AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. A MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY
WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW. THIS WIND REGIME IS MOVING AROUND THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO 24N86W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...FROM 15N
NORTHWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY-TO-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF
15N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM 18N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 69W
AND 71W...AND IN CUBA FROM EAST TO WEST. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 15N NORTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM
17N TO 23N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN BARAHONA AND IN LA ROMANA. FEW
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO
DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS..AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN
SANTIAGO. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...AS A RIDGE TRAVERSES THE AREA.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-
TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
EVENTUALLY ENDS ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE 48-HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
09/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 0.19 IN
TRINIDAD...0.09 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA...AND 0.03 IN SAN JUAN
IN PUERTO RICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA...
BEYOND 85W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 14N SOUTHWARD
FROM 78W WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 10 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...AND ALSO TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 69W AND 75W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 70W
AND 79W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE 6-HOUR
FORECAST OF EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN
8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...INCLUDING IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 33N61W TO 28N61W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 32N55W TO 30N59W AND TO 29N66W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
27N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 48W AND 66W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 09/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC...WERE 1.24 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS...0.07 IN
BERMUDA...AND 0.06 AT FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 28N39W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N60W
AND TO 23N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS BETWEEN 33W
AND 60W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM THE NORTHERN SHORES OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES NORTHWARD FROM 60W WESTWARD.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N21W TO A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N35W...TO 24N53W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...TO 26N80W ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W...EXCEPT NEAR THE 32N55W
30N59W 29N66W STATIONARY FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 19N TO THE EAST OF 48W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 8N TO
14N BETWEEN 49W AND 58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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