[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1615 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N39W TO 15N38W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THIS LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE CONTINUES TO BE EASY TO TRACK WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING LARGE CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE AXIS. DRY AIR IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
WAVE THAT REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-10N E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 34W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N55W TO 10N53W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THIS LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE REMAINS SOMEWHAT
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE WAVE HAS TEMPORARILY
MOVED INTO A  MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING FROM NEW
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO BLOSSOM FROM
07N-10N BETWEEN 52W-57W. THE WAVE WILL BE ENTERING A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 60W-61W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM S OF PANAMA IN THE NE PACIFIC TO
ACROSS CENTRAL PANAMA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N80W. THIS WAVE
HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO TRACK DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS AND HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE W BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE WAVE MAY BE EVEN MORE TO THE W WITH A SURGE OF CONVECTION
NOW NOTED W OF COSTA RICA IN THE NE PACIFIC. ISOLATED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 11N E OF 81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW PRES ON THE AFRICAN
COAST NEAR 16N17W TO 10N19W TO 06N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N22W TO 03N36W THEN RESUMES
FROM 02N42W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 02N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N E OF 19W
AND WITHIN 60-120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 19W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA/ALABAMA BORDER TO WESTERN
CUBA NEAR 23N83W. LIFTING DYNAMICS CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS N TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WITH THE ACTIVITY LIFTING TO THE N. W OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS WITH OVERALL SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 1017 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE
TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. ANTICYCLONIC WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE BASIN...WITH 5-10 KT WINDS
AND 0-2 FT SEAS E OF 87W. A COLD FRONT IS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SE TEXAS WITH A SQUALL LINE EVIDENT AHEAD
OF IT...BREACHING THE NORTHERN TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS ARE 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL RIGHT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WITH THE
PORTION E OF THERE SLIPPING JUST INTO THE WESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTAL WATERS BEFORE BEING FORCE BACK INLAND BY A
REBUILDING RIDGE WITH THE RIDGE MAINTAINING CONTROL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ZONAL MID-UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE SE GULF/WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. THIS TROUGHING IS AIDING THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS...CUBA...AND NOW SPREADING ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE. FARTHER SOUTH...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 10N75W PROVIDING AN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S
OF 15N W OF 78W. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TRADEWIND
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADEWINDS AND 6-10
FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH MAINLY
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS ELSEWHERE.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WITH A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA...PROVIDING SUPPORT
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH PEAK
AFTERNOON HEATING AND INSTABILITY...THIS WILL LIKELY GENERATE
MORE ENHANCED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
LATER IN THE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE GULF IS PROVIDING FOR AN
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND THE BAHAMAS. THIS UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 27N W OF
73W. OTHERWISE...THE SW NORTH ATLC REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL DUE
TO SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM 1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 25N62W
TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR 27.5N80W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS
ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC
WINDS DOMINATE THE BASIN WITH 1-3 FT SEAS N OF 27N W OF 65W...
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS S OF 27N...
EXCEPT 4-7 FT SEAS IN NE-E SWELL S OF 22N W OF 55W.

FARTHER EAST...A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N49W TO
22N60W TO 22N70W. A REINFORCING UPPER TROUGH IS JUST TO THE W
FROM 32N54W TO 26N60W. THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE SUPPORTING A
PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS...ONE FROM 31N47W TO 25N53W...AND A
SECOND FROM 31N52W TO 27N58W TO 29N65W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
JUST TO THE W FROM 31N57W TO 30N61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 53W-60W AHEAD
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. OTHERWISE...1024 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 29N31W
EXTENDS A RIDGE TO 24N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY


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