[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 081044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N21W TO 14N21W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. ON VISIBLE METEOSAT-9 SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE WAVE EXHIBITS
CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE
AXIS WITH GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATING THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
700 MB TROUGHING AND A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY
FROM 07N-14N BETWEEN 19W-28W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE
ITCZ REGION WITH ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 03N-07N BETWEEN 21W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N41W TO 09N40W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. WHILE LESS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAN THE WAVE TO
THE EAST ALONG 21W...VERY SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED IN
GLOBAL MODELS BETWEEN 38W-43W. SINCE DYNAMICS ALOFT REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN...SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS VERY
STABLE AIR MASS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N63W TO 12N63W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATING
VERY WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA AND
THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE WAVE AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 06N23W TO
04N41W TO 02N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N
BETWEEN 21W-27W...AND FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 41W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 20N W OF 87W WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF
87W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BENIGN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 25N86W THAT IS ALSO MOSTLY ENVELOPED IN DRY AIR ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N85W. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA IMMEDIATELY
SURROUNDING THE HIGH CENTER WHERE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
OCCURRING...ON THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH...E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING AND
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W
OF 70W WITH MOST MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS REMAINING ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. A WEAK
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND PENINSULA PROVIDING ENOUGH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N72W TO 15N83W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...EASTERN CUBA...AND
JAMAICA. OTHERWISE...E OF 70W...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY WINDS ADVECTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. FINALLY...TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO
25 KT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS
AROUND 08/0202 UTC WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN
72W AND 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHILE A RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST OF
THE ISLAND CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND. WITH E-SE TRADES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AND A RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT TO THE IMMEDIATE
WEST OF THE ISLAND...CONTINUED ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 37N70W TO ANOTHER MAXIMUM OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N79W. THE
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N70W THAT
EXTENDS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N77W TO THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 32N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM SOUTH OF THE FRONT...AND FROM 25N-
30N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS
EASTERN CUBA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLAND FROM 19N-23N
BETWEEN 68W-78W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N44W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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