[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080547
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N18W TO 12N18W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE WAVE EXHIBITS CYCLONIC
TURNING OF THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS WITH
GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATING THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB
TROUGHING AND A BROAD AREA OF 850 MB RELATIVELY VORTICITY FROM
07N-16N BETWEEN 16W-26W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ
REGION WITH ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 19W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N38W TO 10N38W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. WHILE LESS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAN THE WAVE TO
THE EAST ALONG 18W...VERY SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED IN
GLOBAL MODELS BETWEEN 36W-41W. SINCE DYNAMICS ALOFT REMAIN
FAIRLY BENIGN...SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT OCCURRING AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER COVERS MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS VERY
STABLE AIR MASS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N61W TO 14N61W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE BENEATH AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH GLOBAL MODEL DATA INDICATING
VERY WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER EASTERN VENEZUELA AND
THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA NORTHEASTWARD
OVER THE WAVE AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 06N20W TO
04N27W TO 04N38W TO 03N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
03N-05N BETWEEN 05W-07W...AND FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 19W-29W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DRY AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IS PROVIDING MUCH OF THE GULF N OF 20N W OF 88W WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD INTO
SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF E OF 88W IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A BENIGN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N86W THAT
IS ALSO MOSTLY ENVELOPED IN DRY AIR ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...
SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1016 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 28N87W. EXCEPT FOR THE AREA IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING THE
HIGH CENTER WHERE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE OCCURRING...ON THE
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH...E-SE WINDS IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W
OF 70W WITH MOST MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS REMAINING ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. A WEAK
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL AND PENINSULA PROVIDING ENOUGH MID-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS NW OF A LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR
18N74W TO 15N84W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA.
OTHERWISE...E OF 70W...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
TO ADVECT MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS FROM NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
WINDS ADVECTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. FINALLY...TRADES PERSIST IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 25 KT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS NOTED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS AROUND
08/0202 UTC WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W
AND 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS IN THE
UPPER LEVELS WHILE A RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST OF
THE ISLAND CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
WITH E-SE TRADES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND A RELATIVELY DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF THE ISLAND...CONTINUED
ISOLATED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST NEAR 37N72W TO ANOTHER MAXIMUM OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N80W. THE
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N72W THAT
EXTENDS A COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 31N77W TO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA/GEORGIA BORDER NEAR 32N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT CONTINUE TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 70W-81W...INCLUDING
INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE VICINITY AND
EAST OF THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OCCURRING
ACROSS CUBA AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE NORTHERN CUBA COAST.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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