[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 080005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 07 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17W/18W TO THE SOUTH OF
12N MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE WAS WELL-DEFINED IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE TPW
ANIMATION. THE UNIV. OF ALBANY POTENTIAL VORTICITY FORECAST FOR
310K AND 315K SHOWS A 700 MB JET STREAM PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS
THE WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 8N
TO 12N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. SCATTERED STRONG IS FROM 6N TO 8N
BETWEEN 19W AND 21W...QUITE POSSIBLY MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ
THAN TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W/37W TO THE SOUTH OF
11N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W IN THE ITCZ.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W...FROM 14N NEAR
BARBADOS SOUTHWARD INTO VENEZUELA AND GUYANA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN
59W AND 63W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN
INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/
SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 2.41 IN TRINIDAD.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND IN AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG
6N20W 4N25W 5N35W 4N39W 3N45W 3N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 27W AND
48W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W.
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE IVORY COAST FROM 4N
TO 5N BETWEEN 4W AND 5W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM
TEXAS AND MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT WIND FLOW REACHES
NEAR 22N93W...BECOMING WESTERLY...AND CONTINUING ACROSS THE GULF
OF MEXICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N90W...AND IT FLOWS
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 28N89W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE
WEST OF 90W...AND NEAR THE  31N79W 25N83W ATLANTIC OCEAN TO GULF
OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN FLORIDA FROM 26N81W NORTHWARD TO 30N...AND
BETWEEN 82W AND 85W.

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS INLAND IN MEXICO NEAR 18N96W. A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N98W. THIS LOW
CENTER WAS THE SPECIAL FEATURE FROM 24 HOURS AGO WHILE IT WAS
ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR VERA CRUZ.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.26 IN
MERIDA...IN MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING
ICAO STATIONS...KXIH...KHQI...AND KVOA.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF TEXAS. A FEW REPORTS OF LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. RAIN AND CLOUDS ARE
IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND IN FLORIDA ELSEWHERE FROM 82W
WESTWARD.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET FROM 19N TO 21N TO THE WEST OF 95W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 24N67W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE...TO
16N71W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 14N72W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
THAT ARE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N FROM
PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE WESTWARD. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-
TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE AREA OF THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER BARAHONA. FEW LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SANTO DOMINGO.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN LA ROMANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER PUNTA CANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING REPORTED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST TO WEST
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH THE CURRENT TROUGH...AND
EVENTUALLY A RIDGE BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.  THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS
THAT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN
ATLANTIC OCEAN RIDGE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.03 IN SAN
JUAN IN PUERTO RICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE WIND FLOW.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N77W...9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N
ALONG 83W/84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...EARLIER PRECIPITATION...AT
07/1745 UTC AS AN EXAMPLE...IN PANAMA ALONG 80W...HAS WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 75W. STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 10N74W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8
TO 11 FEET FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W. EXPECT ALSO
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO
17N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...PASSING THROUGH 32N76W TO 28N74W
AND 23N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N79W...TO THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST ALONG 28N...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 25N83W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 23N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 67W AND
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. NUMEROUS
STRONG IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
RAINSHOWERS ARE IN FLORIDA FROM 26N81W NORTHWARD TO 30N...AND
BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.14 IN BERMUDA.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N49W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 19N
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 42W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO 22N34W AND 20N38W. A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO 31N13W. A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM 31N13W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 28N20W...
27N24W AND 27N28W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N12W
25N20W 24N30W 24N40W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N30W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N45W...TO 28N63W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 26N78W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 30W AND 78W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND AND SEA HEIGHTS
8 TO 9 FEET FROM 8N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 57W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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