[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 08 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 01N23W TO 16N21W MOVING W
AT 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LARGE AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS
VERY EVIDENT ON THE DAKAR SOUNDING ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND ON
SATELLITE HOVMOLLERS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LARGE
CYCLONIC TURNING WITH THIS WAVE. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH
ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NOTED FROM 03N-08N
BETWEEN 21W-27W.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 02N43W TO 13N42W MOVING W
AT 10-15 KT. THIS IS A LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL
WAVE WITH PERTURBATION EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...ESPECIALLY
WITHIN THE ITCZ. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH A DRY AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND AS A RESULT...THERE IS LIMITED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR 03N64W TO 13N63W MOVING W
AT 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE IS ALSO LOW LATITUDE AND LOW AMPLITUDE.
THOUGH SUBTLE...IT IS EVIDENT THROUGH A LONG TERM SATELLITE
LOOP. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE
AT THIS TIME.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG 05N26W TO
05N41W. IT THEN CONTINUES FROM 05N46W TO 04N52W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN
33W AND 37W. ISOLATED MODERATE WAS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N OF ITCZ
BETWEEN 46W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SUBSIDENT
UPPER LEVEL NW WINDS ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE ARE HELPING
CREATE A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND FAIR
CONDITIONS...ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF WATERS TO THE WEST OF THE
UPPER TOUGH AXIS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED
OVER THE NE GULF. THIS IS MAINTAINING ANTICYCLONIC WINDS FLOW
OVER THE GULF WATERS. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS ARE IN THE NW GULF
AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. OTHERWISE S TO SE WINDS IN THE
10-20 KT RANGE ARE FOUND OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIES JUST NW OF THE AREA OVER THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO. DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS
HELPING TO MAINTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE ISOLATED TRADEWIND SHOWERS ARE
AFFECTING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. TRADEWINDS IN
THE 20-25 KT RANGE ARE NOTED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...10-15 KT IN THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 5-10 KT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS JUST TO THE NW OF HISPANIOLA WITH
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION JUST TO
THE WEST OF HISPANIOLA. THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED DIFFLUENT FLOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT TO DIURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS NE-SW ACROSS THE SW N ATLC WATERS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH...ROUGHLY
FROM A LINE 31N66W TO 26N76W AND THEN ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS. AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS HELPED FOR A SURFACE TROUGH ROUGHLY
FROM 30N75W TO S FLORIDA. THE TROUGH IS WEAKENING AND EARLIER
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE WATERS ASSOCIATED TO THE TROUGH HAS
DECREASED. CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR
30N42W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO NEAR 27N72W. LIGHT WINDS ARE
FOUND ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLANTIC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WITH A LARGE AREA OF
DRY AIR N OF THE ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
AL

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