[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N34W TO 02N36W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
AMPLIFY. GLOBAL MODEL DATA ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IS
MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 10N THAT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 01N-07N
BETWEEN 33W-39W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
06N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N13W TO 04N26W TO 06N33W. THE ITCZ RESUMES AT 04N38W W OF A
TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
02N50W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 06W-
14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 20W-
26W...AND FROM 00N-05N BETWEEN 48W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A SMALL 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 18.5N94.5W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE
LOW TO 23N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF
THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 89W-94W. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
DIFFLUENCE IS E OF THE AXIS OVER THE E GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE E OF 88W TO INCLUDE FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR SURFACE LOW TO BE QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF S OF 26N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...AND MOST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO HAS CONVECTION DUE TO
T.S. BORIS CENTERED OVER THE E PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 30 INCHES LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE
MEXICAN STATES OF OAXACA AND CHIAPAS. BORIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN GUATEMALA.
THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALSO OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER JAMAICA AND PUERTO RICO. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS ALSO
PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18N W OF 85W. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE ISLAND DUE
TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 31N55W
TO 24N60W TO 23N65W. A SHEARLINE CONTINUES TO E CUBA AT 21N76W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT E
OF 24N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N
BETWEEN 75W-80W. A LARGE 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE
AZORES NEAR 38N39W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
HIGH TO 25N50W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE METEOSAT SAHARAN
AIR LAYER PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS DRY DUSTY AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC N
OF 08N BETWEEN 303-60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N63W SUPPORTING
THE SURFACE FRONT. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION N OF CUBA AND
HISPANIOLA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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