[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 11N36W TO 1N38W...MOVING WEST NEAR 15
KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE IS
BEING ENGULFED BY THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH DRY AIR IS
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION IN THAT REGION OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 5N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 8N13W TO
7N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS NEAR 7N19W
AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N28W TO EAST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR
6N35W...IT THEN RESUMES WEST OF THE WAVE NEAR 2N41W TO THE
NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...CLUSTERS OF
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 4N-11N E
OF 15W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 23W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN ELONGATED MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE FROM 24N90W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 20N93W TO 18N93W.
THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION S OF 25N BETWEEN 85W-94W.
CHANCES THIS SYSTEM DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS REMAIN LOW...HOWEVER LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE SW BASIN AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF SE MEXICO TO
INCLUDE THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
CENTRAL AND SE CONUS AS WELL AS THE FAR W ATLC. THE RIDGE ALOFT
SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SW N ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018
MB HIGH NEAR 30N76W WHICH EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE NE GULF AND
PROVIDES E-SE FLOW OF 5-15 KT OVER THE EASTERN AS WELL AS THE NW
GULF. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW GULF IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE
ELSEWHERE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 84W
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND TROPICAL STORM BORIS OVER THE E PAC. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ACROSS CUBA AND HISPANIOLA ALONG WITH A REGION OF
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IN
THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS. OVER THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON
TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS S
OF 12N W OF 79W. DRY AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIR LAYER OUTBREAK
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL BASIN WHICH IS
SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE...THUS FAIR WEATHER. SCATTEROMETER WIND
DATA INDICATE TRADES OF 15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT
S OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-75W AND S OF 18N W OF 84W WHERE THERE IS A
WIND MAX OF 20 KT. RAINSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS FOR THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS CENTRAL
AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS WELL AS THE
REGION OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WHICH IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE
NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COVERS THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK WHICH ALONG DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT
WATERS. A DEEP LAYER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS
EXTENDS A TROUGH INTO THE SW N ATLC TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N55W TO 25N58W TO 22N65W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 25N. ELSEWHERE...BESIDES THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALREADY DISCUSSED...SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR
WEATHER DOMINATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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