[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N24W TO 13N32W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. WHILE STILL SLIGHTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
AMPLIFY. GLOBAL MODEL DATA ALSO INDICATES LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY IS
MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 10N THAT
CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 03N-07N
BETWEEN 33W-39W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO
08N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N18W TO 07N24W TO 08N33W TO 02N43W TO 01N50W. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 33W...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 09W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N
BETWEEN 18W-22W...AND FROM 02N-05N BETWEEN 47W-53W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VERY NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA REGION NEAR
30N90W SW TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N100W. WHILE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR ALOFT...TO THE
EAST...UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY DIFFLUENT FLOW COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF BASIN AND FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE. MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC REGION
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MAXIMUM DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 18N-30N BETWEEN 80W-95W WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MOST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND BIG BEND REGION.
A 1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED IN THE SW GULF NEAR 19N95W ALONG WITH
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N-NW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 25N98W
PROVIDING LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA ACROSS THE SW GULF IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS RIDGING HOLDS STRONG ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF AND SE U.S. COASTLINE INCLUDING THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES OVER MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 13N86W. WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOISTURE AND
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO SPILL OVER THE CREST OF THE RIDGE AND
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...EASTERLY FLOW IN THE
RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT PERSISTS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
GENERALLY W OF 80W...INCLUDING MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND THE NEARBY
COASTAL WATERS DUE TO A SHEAR LINE ANALYZED FROM THE SE BAHAMAS
TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W. TO THE SOUTH...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING S OF 12N IN THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DUE
TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS ALONG 09N. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES DUE TO
DRIER AIR ALOFT S OF 17N E OF 77W. AN INTRUSION OF THE SAHARAN
AIR LAYER IS ALSO IMPACTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE. TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GENERALLY IN
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE STRONGER WINDS S OF 15N
BETWEEN 66W-76W AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDING AN OVERALL
DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN PLACE TO THE
WEST WITH AXIS ALONG 84W. AT THE SURFACE...A SHEAR LINE IS
ANALYZED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLAND ALONG 22N WITH MOST OF
THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION REMAINING IN THE SW
NORTH ATLC WATERS. AS EASTERLY TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST...A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC NEAR
35N63W WITH A 1007 MB LOW COLLOCATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE. LARGELY OCCLUDED TO THE NORTH OF 32N...TO THE EAST OF
THE LOW CENTER...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N55W EXTENDING SW TO 25N60W TO 23N66W BECOMING A SHEAR
LINE WESTWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N
OF 25N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE W OF 59W. THE REMAINDER
OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N77W. WHILE THE SHEAR
LINE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MIDDLE TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO COVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OCCURRING S OF 26N W OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
WATERS E OF 50W AS A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED W OF THE AZORES
NEAR 38N36W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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