[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012355
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 02N27W TO 09N26W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AT THE SURFACE...ALOFT THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH VERY BROAD 850MB-700MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 18W-30W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 24W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N65W TO 10N63W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS INLAND ACROSS EASTERN VENEZUELA THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-08N BETWEEN
62W-69W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 01N72W TO 10N72W MOVING W AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW VENEZUELA AND
EASTERN COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N
BETWEEN 69W-74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
10N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
10N21W TO 04N27W TO 01N39W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE LISTED ABOVE...
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N BETWEEN 10W-
22W...AND FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 36W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF
NEAR 24N93W. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 19N93W TO 28N94W. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE REMAINS WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...TO THE EAST...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS
MAXIMIZED E OF 91W. THE ASSOCIATED DYNAMICS ALONG WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS FROM 20N-29N BETWEEN 80W-92W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AS E-SE WINDS PREVAIL IN
THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT BETWEEN A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE CAROLINAS AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SW GULF THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING. TO THE WEST OF
THIS TROUGHING...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 83W IS
SUPPORTING AN OVERALL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT GENERATING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 80W...INCLUDING
INLAND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N
BETWEEN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA TO THE WEST.
THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ENHANCED DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 09N/10N. FARTHER EAST...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHERN
VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES.
OTHERWISE...A FEW SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING ACROSS CUBA AND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH LATE
EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. TRADES ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO A RANGE OF
15 TO 25 KT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION GENERATING A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND DUE
TO PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
GIVEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC
REGION THIS EVENING REMAINING W OF 77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING PRIMARILY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BUT A
FEW EXTEND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.
TO THE NORTHEAST...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
36N63W THAT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 32N57W SW TO
26N70W THEN NW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 71W. A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED FROM 32N62W TO 29N66W TO 28N71W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DELMARVA REGION
NEAR 38N75W. FARTHER EAST...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC ARE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH
CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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