[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUN 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 23W AND 31W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS VENEZUELA ALONG 66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 9N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS...MOVING ACROSS VENEZUELA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED STRONG IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS
ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 62W AND 69W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN COLOMBIA ALONG 74W/75W TO THE SOUTH OF 11N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND
80W...ALSO IN BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 13N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 13N19W TO 8N22W
TO 3N34W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W/44W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 34W AND 51W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 8N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA...
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND ACAPULCO MEXICO. A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N93W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERNMOST PART. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS
FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA BEYOND CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 93W/94W FROM
20N TO 27N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 93W
INCLUDING IN PARTS OF FLORIDA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS NORTHERN SECTIONS HONDURAS INTO BELIZE
AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS...KVBS...KATP...AND KDLP. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGRY.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN TEXAS AT...PORT ISABEL...AT THE NAVAL
STATION IN CORPUS CHRISTI...AND ROCKPORT...IN LOUISIANA IN LAKE
CHARLES AND GALLIANO AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION...IN SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...IN FLORIDA FROM TALLAHASSEE
WESTWARD...IN BROOKSVILLE AND IN THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN AREA AND
SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES...AND AT MARATHON KEY IN THE FLORIDA
KEYS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN PERRY
FLORIDA.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO COASTAL
VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO
9N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA...AND IN PANAMA. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO
AND JAMAICA AND CUBA...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED
LOW CLOUDS...WITH SOME CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...FOR SANTO DOMINGO
AND PUNTA CANA...SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH HISPANIOLA BEING ON THE WEST
SIDE OF A TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE.
THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.01 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM
11N86W...THROUGH 12N94W...TO 13N98W. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 12N94W. PLEASE READ
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...HSFEP2/FZPN03
KNHC...THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...
MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...AND THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...
MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM
11N TO 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN
75W AND 77W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY 32N57W 27N63W 26N70W TO 29N82W IN
FLORIDA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.29 IN
BERMUDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 28N47W 23N53W TO 23N64W
AND TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF
16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 80W...AND AWAY FROM THE 32N57W 27N63W
26N70W TO 29N82W IN FLORIDA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET TO THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM 31N37W TO 25N42W TO 18N35W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N58W TO
25N65W TO 27N78W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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