[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N24W TO 03N26W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AT THE SURFACE...ALOFT THE WAVE
COINCIDES WITH VERY BROAD AND WEAK 850MB-700MB TROUGHING BETWEEN
22W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-07N BETWEEN
24W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 09N62W TO 01N62W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATES MAXIMUM VALUES
SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N70W TO 01N70W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING AT 700 MB ALONG WITH A RELATIVELY BROAD
AREA OF 850 MB VORTICITY SURROUND THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS INLAND
PORTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N16W TO
11N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
11N18W TO 04N30W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 00N50W. ASIDE
FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES LISTED
ABOVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 12W-
21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO FROM HOUSTON TEXAS
AT 29N95W TO 24N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N92W.
ELSEWHERE...10-15 KT SE SURFACE FLOW IS OVER THE E GULF. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF
NEAR 27N91W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N-28N BETWEEN
80W-90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL AND N
FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE CONVECTION OVER
THE E GULF TO SPREAD TO THE W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 17N. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NW COLOMBIA TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA TO BEYOND
11N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER
PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 77W-
86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 18N BETWEEN 82W-
89W TO INCLUDE W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONTINUED CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W.

...HISPANIOLA...

CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N58W
TO 27N68W TO 30N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90
NM OF THE FRONT E OF 70W. A LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE AZORES NEAR 38N27W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE
HIGH TO 25N55W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THE METEOSAT SAHARAN
AIR LAYER PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS DRY DUSTY AIR OVER THE E ATLANTIC E
OF 50W N OF 08N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N66W SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE FRONT. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 28N30W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE E WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net