[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 24W TO THE SOUTH
OF 9N...BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS...MOVING THROUGH THE CENTER OF GUYANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND
WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN MOVING FROM CENTRAL
SECTIONS OF SURINAME INTO EXTREME EASTERN VENEZUELA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS JUST TO THE NORTH OF THAT AREA IN
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN VENEZUELA ALONG
66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN VENEZUELA BETWEEN 64W AND 68W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W TO 5N24W
3N35W 2N42W.TO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 1N53W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 10W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN
30W AND 31W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 15 NM
TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM THE EQUATOR ALONG 36W
TO 1N38W TO 2N41W TO 2N44W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
LOUISIANA...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE
EASTERNMOST PART. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 93W FROM 20N TO 29N.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 20N
TO 24N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN
86W AND WESTERN BELIZE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO
THE EAST OF 92W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
22N90W 19N95W...IN THE WATERS AND ACROSS MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS...KGVX...KVBS...KGUL...KGHB...KMDJ...AND KDLP. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGBK...KATP...
KGRY...KIPN...KIKT...KVKY...AND KMIS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE LOWER VALLEY OF TEXAS.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD DECKS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST
PLAINS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.
MULTILAYERED CLOUD DECKS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
LOUISIANA...EVEN AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. RAIN HAS BEEN
SPOTTY...SOME NEAR LAKE CHARLES DURING THE LAST FEW
OBSERVATIONS...AND ENDING COMPLETELY ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS OF LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN
TALLAHASSEE...AND AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. MIDDLE
LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE NAVAL AIR STATION
IN KEY WEST.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO COASTAL
COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM EAST CENTRAL
NICARAGUA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TO THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA
AND CUBA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A LOW LEVEL AND
A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO AND PUNTA CANA.
FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO
PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN
SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE MOST OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE TO WESTERLY AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS TO GO BEFORE THE 48-HOUR
PERIOD ENDS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.01 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 12N95W. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...AND
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. EXPECT
ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET
ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF
85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 29N70W 31N80W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N58W TO 30N62W 28N66W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...WAS 0.68 IN BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N29W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 40W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND
32W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 29N45W 25N63W TO
28N79W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
80W...AND AWAY FROM THE 32N58W 29N70W 31N80W COLD FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9
FEET TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 28N35W TO 27N38W TO 18N39W TO
12N60W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM
31N61W TO 29N70W TO 31N79W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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