[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W/25W TO THE SOUTH OF
9N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS...MOVING ACROSS THE BORDER OF SURINAME
AND GUYANA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IS MOVING
THROUGH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF SURINAME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH VENEZUELA ALONG 64W/65W TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN VENEZUELA FROM 6N TO THE COAST TO THE EAST OF 63W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N19W TO
5N24W...3N36W...2N43W 2N49W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
1N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 34W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR
TO 5N BETWEEN 37W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS AND
LOUISIANA...INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
TROUGH COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE
EASTERNMOST PART...WHERE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LOUISIANA
ALONG 92W/93W...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
25N92W...TO 20N94W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO STRONG
ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 90W AND 93W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS ARE REPORTING LOW LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS...KGBK...KGRY...AND KIKT. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KATP...KGRY...KMDJ...KIPN...KIKT...
KVOA...KVKY...AND KMIS.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF
TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

SCATTERED AND BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE LOWER VALLEY
OF TEXAS...AND IN FALFURRIAS TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...EVEN AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA...PASSING DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO COASTAL
COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM EAST CENTRAL
NICARAGUA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN
PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA AND CUBA.

CLOUD CONDITIONS...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A LOW LEVEL AND
A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVER SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL
CLOUD AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING COVERS SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH WILL PASS DIRECTLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA.
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN
SEA EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE MOST OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE WIND FLOW WILL CHANGE TO WESTERLY AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY WITH ABOUT 12 HOURS TO GO BEFORE THE 48-HOUR
PERIOD ENDS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 1.01 IN
TEGUCIGALPA IN HONDURAS. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 12N94W. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...AND
THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...MIATWOEP/ABPZ20 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
AREAS OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADE
WIND FLOW.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 67W AND 75W. A SECOND AREA OF
CONCERN CONSISTS OF...THE 6-HOUR FORECAST OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N66W TO HISPANIOLA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 30N70W AND
32N80W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 30N63W 29N68W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO
THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...WAS 0.68 IN BERMUDA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 28N31W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 20W
AND 40W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND
32W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 28N48W 25N58W TO 27N70W
AND 29N80W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN IN THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
80W...AND AWAY FROM THE 32N60W 30N70W 32N80W COLD FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS TO 9 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 28N35W TO 15N45W TO 13N60W. A
SECOND AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N62W TO
30N70W TO 31N77W. EXPECT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
LOWER THAN 8 FEET.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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