[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311153
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 11 TO
14 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 75W. A SECOND AREA OF
INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 11 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W
AND 80W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM
10N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 82W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N16W...TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 23W...TO 2S30W AND 3S38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
SOUTH OF 5N7W 6N11W 3N26W 2N40W...TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...FLORIDA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N48W 28N60W 27N74W...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF
90W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W 29N70W 22N78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN BERMUDA. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 30N74W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N74W TO THE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL...TO THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
STATIONARY FRONT IS DISSIPATING AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
SAME PENINSULA.

A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30.5N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 27N80W TO THE EAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 28N88W IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE ICAO STATIONS
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST.
VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG COVER THE CORPUS CHRISTI
METROPOLITAN AREA...INCLUDING ROBSTOWN AND ROCKPORT...PORT
LAVACA AND PALACIOS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE IN TEXAS
COASTAL AREAS FROM THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST TO THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA AND TO THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA. THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS CONTINUE INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND AROUND
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE FROM CRESTVIEW AND THE AREA OF MARY ESTHER/VALPARAISO/
DESTIN...TO PANAMA CITY...MARIANNA...TALLAHASSEE...
APALACHICOLA...AND PERRY. VISIBILITIES OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND
FOG ARE IN THIS AREA OF THE PANHANDLE. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND
RAIN COVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING
COVERS MARATHON KEY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER
THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N80W TO 21N87W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET WITHIN
90 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 84W AND 90W.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IT COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF
81W. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 24N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND BEYOND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH
OF 16N TO THE EAST OF 81W.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE
AREA OF COMPARATIVELY FEWER CLOUDS AND A COMPARATIVELY LOWER
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 70W
AND 80W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA AND
BEYOND 84W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND NEARBY RAINSHOWERS ARE BEING REPORTED IN
SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN PUNTA CANA. FEW
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND PUERTO PLATA.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE DIRECTLY IN A RIDGE...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N45W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N57W TO 13N65W TO 14N81W IN
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A
RIDGE...AND MOISTURE...COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE 24N45W
CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF 25N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N36W..THROUGH 32N45W TO 31N56W 28N66W 26N73W...TO
CENTRAL CUBA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N69W 27N78W
FLORIDA STRAITS STATIONARY FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 12 FEET...THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS
NEAR 22N45W...FROM 10N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 41W AND FROM 17N TO
26N BETWEEN 41W AND 55W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM
28N35W TO 28N50W TO 23N72W TO 19N68W. A SECOND AREA OF CONCERN
CONSISTS OF A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30.5N78W.
EXPECT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF THE LOW CENTER TO
80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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