[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 310604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...DEVELOPING GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE 6 HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST GALE-FORCE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 TO 15 FEET FROM 11N TO 13.5N BETWEEN
73W AND 77W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W. A THIRD AREA OF INTEREST
CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 82W.

...OTHER MARINE CONDITIONS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 72W AND 78W NE TO E WINDS 25 TO 30 KT.
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 10.5N TO 17N BETWEEN 68W AND 79W
NE TO E WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT...HIGHEST SW. REMAINDER
AREA FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 64W AND 82W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.
SEAS TO 9 FT PRIMARILY IN E SWELL.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N16W AND 3N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
3N20W TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 27W...TO 1S31W 1S36W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 13W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM 3N TO 5S
BETWEEN 16W AND 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH...FLORIDA...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N48W 28N60W 27N74W...INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF
90W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W 29N70W 22N78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...
MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN BERMUDA. A STATIONARY FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N69W TO 30N74W...TO THE GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND IN
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO 23N85W
IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO 20N90W IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...OFF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...TO
A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N79W TO 28N79W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA...ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 29N92W IN THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE ICAO STATIONS
AT THIS TIME.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COAST. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS AND RAIN COVER THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N80W TO 23N86.5W TO 20N90W.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET
WITHIN 180 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 84W AND 90W.
EXPECT ALSO NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 92.5W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 90W AND 96W

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW ENTERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IT COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF
80W. THIS WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING AROUND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 23N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...BEYOND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND BEYOND
THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXCEPT TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
31/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.11 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N BETWEEN 76W IN COLOMBIA AND
BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW ALSO IS MOVING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW
LOW CLOUDS COVER PUNTA CANA...SANTIAGO...AND PUERTO PLATA. FEW
LOW CLOUDS COVER PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB
SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE DIRECTLY IN A RIDGE...WITH
NORTHEASTERLY-TO-EASTERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR
700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N45W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N57W TO 13N65W TO 14N80W IN
THE WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A
RIDGE...AND MOISTURE...COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ELSEWHERE WITHIN
450 NM TO 600 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF 22N26W 24N33W
20N40W 10N50W 6N56W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 33N36W..THROUGH 32N45W TO 31N56W 28N66W 26N73W...TO
CENTRAL CUBA. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N69W 27N78W
FLORIDA STRAITS STATIONARY FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET...THE COMPARATIVELY HIGHEST SEA HEIGHTS
TO THE EAST OF 50W...FROM 10N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 41W AND FROM
17N TO 25N BETWEEN 41W AND 54W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE LINE FROM 28N35W TO 27N50W TO 22N72W TO 19N68W. A SECOND
AREA OF CONCERN CONSISTS OF A 31N72W TO 25N80W STATIONARY FRONT.
A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N78W. EXPECT NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET IN THE
FORECAST WATERS THAT ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE
WESTERN QUADRANT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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