[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311725
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 31 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE TO GALE FORCE TODAY
AND SAT MAINLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. PLEASE SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 7N12W AND CONTINUES TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES ALONG 1N27W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 34W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO
INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF 2W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 10W-15W
AND FROM 2N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM GEORGIA INTO THE NE GULF TO 26N86W. A
REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT IS BEGINNING TO DRIFT N AND AT 31/1500
UTC EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER FLORIDA NEAR EVERGLADES CITY TO
KEY WEST TO N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W. MOSAIC DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS COVERING THE E GULF S OF 28N E OF 85W TO OVER FLORIDA
AND N OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE S OF THE FRONT
W OF KEY WEST. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A
1024 MB HIGH OVER GEORGIA. FRONT WILL WEAKEN BEFORE THE REMNANTS
BEGIN TO SHIFT NW LATER TODAY THROUGH SAT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE NW GULF WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE GULF BY LATE SAT.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST LATE
SUN. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM MOBILE ALABAMA TO NEAR TAMPICO
MEXICO BY MON WHERE IT WILL STALL THEN WILL DRIFT NW AND INLAND
LATE MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED
IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N78W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ACROSS
THE BASIN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 21N86W TO JUST OFF
THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN
60 NM W OF THE TROUGH AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF LINE
FROM CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO 20N86W. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WINDS ARE IN THE E AND S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE WITH
STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
REACHING MINIMAL GALES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AND
SAT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THESE
TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF 14N
TO THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 70W-84W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS HAITI WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH SUN THEN SHIFT W THROUGH WED. FAIR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY AND SUN WHEN AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WILL THEN SPREAD FROM E TO W ACROSS THE ISLAND
INCREASING THE CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR W ATLC FROM NEW ENGLAND TO
THE GEORGIA COAST SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N78W TO 28N80W.
THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE W ATLC ENTERING
NEAR 32N71W TO 29N76W WHERE A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE EXTENDS ACROSS S
FLORIDA BETWEEN VERO BEACH AND EVERGLADES CITY THEN CONTINUING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
150 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM SE OF
THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W
AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA ALONG 26N63W TO
BEYOND 32N50W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS ALONG 28N38W THROUGH 23N48W TO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH NEAR 33N39W.
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NW AND MERGE WITH THE SURFACE
TROUGH LATER TODAY. THE MERGED BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NW OF THE AREA
BY SAT MORNING. BROAD THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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