[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261323 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
W ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29N W OF 72W FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AND WILL BE DISCONTINUED THIS MORNING.
PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS
HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N14W AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N16W TO 4N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N25W 3N37W TO S OF THE EQUATOR INTO
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 43W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 4N BETWEEN
1W-10W AND FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 26W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE GULF FROM W CUBA TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA ACROSS TAMPA INTO THE GULF ALONG 26N85W 23N92W TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 23N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
GULF AND IS SPLIT BY THE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB
HIGH NEAR 22N96W AND A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 22N88W. OVERCAST LOW TO
MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER A PORTION OF THE
GULF WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 25N90W TO
23N97W. SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE TODAY. A
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
INTO THE N GULF BY MON SLOWLY SAGGING S ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH
MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO 18N82W. REMNANT MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 86W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING ISOLATED LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N63W TO 17N76W.
STATIONARY FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE TODAY. TRADE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SW HAITI. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING.
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GIVE THE
ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA N OF 28N BETWEEN 60W-80W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N75W TO 30N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM SE THE FRONT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT REMAINS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING NEAR 32N60W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 26N69W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO ACROSS
CUBA NEAR CAMAGUEY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N44W. AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
26N14W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 22N23W ALONG 15N42W TO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1037 MB HIGH JUST W OF THE AZORES.
STATIONARY FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE TODAY. THE W ATLC
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE N WATERS TODAY AND MERGE WITH
THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT. THE RESULTANT WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE SE BAHAMAS MON WHILE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA LATE
MON STALLING ACROSS THE NW PORTION LATE TUE WITH A REINFORCING
FRONT OVERTAKING IT WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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