[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES ALONG 3N15W TO 1N20W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 2N31W 1N41W TO S OF THE EQUATOR
INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 24W-43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2S-3N
BETWEEN 16W-28W AND FROM 4S-2N WEST OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE U.S. AND THE
WEST ATLC HAS ITS BASE OVER THE NW. ON THE GULF...THIS TROUGH IS
SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE EASTERN BASIN AS A
COLD FRONT NEAR 27N82W TO 27N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28N87W TO 29N91W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALSO SUPPORTED ALONG 26N83W TO 23N88W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 18N93W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NE GULF N OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH E OF 89W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 24N91W THAT
PROVIDES ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF 5-10 KT. BOTH THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
DIFFUSE TODAY. A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE N GULF BY MON MORNING SLOWLY SAGGING
S ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN WHICH IS
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. AS OF 1500 UTC...THE STATIONARY
FRONT HAS DISSIPATED. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST OF HONDURAS IS GENERATING SHOWERS S OF 18N WEST OF 84W.
FARTHER EAST...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N74W TO
12N75W WHICH IS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
72W-77W. TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT COVERS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WHILE 10-15 KT NORTHEASTERLIES DOMINATE
OVER THE NW BASIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
JAMAICA LATER TODAY GENERATING SHOWERS AND THEN MOVE INTO
EASTERN HONDURAS TUE MORNING.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF SW HAITI AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH JUST EAST OF JAMAICA.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
TUE MORNING THUS ASSISTING IN KEEPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FORMING.

ATLANTIC...
A BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH COVERING MOST OF THE U.S. AND THE
WEST ATLC HAS ITS BASE OVER THE NW. ON THE WEST ATLC...THIS
TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT ENTERS THE SW N ATLC
AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N71W TO 29N78W TO 28N80W AND A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N60W TO 24N70W TO EASTERN
CUBA NEAR 20N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT AS
WELL AS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS
DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 57W-63W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1039 MB HIGH JUST SW OF THE AZORES. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE TODAY. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL RACE
ACROSS THE N WATERS TODAY AND MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE
STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT. THE RESULTANT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL
RETROGRADE INTO THE SE BAHAMAS MON WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA LATE MON STALLING
ACROSS THE NW PORTION LATE TUE WITH A REINFORCING FRONT
OVERTAKING IT WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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