[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
W ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 29N W OF 72W FOR FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/
FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 5N9W AND CONTINUES TO 3N15W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND
CONTINUES TO ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24N AND 35W THEN 1N41W
BEFORE TURNING S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 44W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 4N-13N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE GULF FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NW COAST NEAR THE
LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS THE GULF
EXTENDING FROM NE GULF NEAR 30N84W ALONG 27N85W 24N91W TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SURFACE TROUGH SPLITS A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 23N87W AND
25N96W. OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS COVER A PORTION OF THE GULF FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 85W-96W
AND S OF 24N BETWEEN 93W-97W. SURFACE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH EARLY SUN. A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE N GULF BY MON
SLOWLY SAGGING S ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH MID WEEK.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA TO 18N83W.
REMNANT MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 86W. FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ELSEWHERE. THESE TRADE WINDS
ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS 15N TO THE S COAST OF HISPANIOLA
BETWEEN 70W-75W. STATIONARY FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

HISPANIOLA...
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FORMING. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD CONTINUE TO GIVE
THE ISLAND ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH TUE.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER TROUGH NW ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC TO 25N BETWEEN
63W-80W SUPPORTING A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT THAT IS JUST N OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE
FROM 27N79W TO BEYOND 32N72W. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING NEAR 32N59W AND CONTINUES ALONG
29N67W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR SANTA CLARA. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N44W. AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR
26N14W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 21N23W ALONG 14N43W TO SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 6N54W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1040 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES.
STATIONARY FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE N WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MERGING
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE STATIONARY FRONT SUN NIGHT. THE
RESULTANT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE SE BAHAMAS MON
WHILE GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. A THIRD COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF NE
FLORIDA LATE MON STALLING ACROSS THE NW PORTION TUE WITH A
REINFORCING FRONT OVERTAKING IT BY WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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