[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252343
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN ATLC GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 29N W OF 74W FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WARNING WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA AT 05N08W
TO 01S16W AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ TO 03S25W TO 01N36W
TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST AT THE EQUATOR. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED FROM 02N TO 04N W OF 49W
INTO SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE GULF. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A WEAK 1019 MB LOW NEAR 29N87W TO 26N90W TO
A 1021 MB LOW NEAR 22N93W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 22N93W LOW TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TO
17N94W TO 20N97W. A 1021 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OFF THE W COAST OF
FLORIDA NEAR 27N84W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS LOCATED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST AND IS MOVING SOUTH. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUDS COVER A LARGE PART OF THE GULF NW OF A LINE FROM
29N83W TO 18N93W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN. MODERATE
WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AN
ENHANCED AREA OF CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN
68W AND 73W...MOVING WEST. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY FRONT IS
LOCATED FROM THE CUBA COAST AT 80W TO 17N84W.

HISPANIOLA...
VERY DRY ALOFT COVERS HISPANIOLA. ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WITH
POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVERS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC.

ATLANTIC...
THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO SECTION CONTINUES EASTWARD TO 65W N OF 23N. A JET IS
LOCATED FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH 32N67W AND IS
STRONGEST N OF ABOUT 28N. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS
LOCATED FROM NEAR 20N60W TO BEYOND 32N48W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...ABOUT 7 DEGREES IN DIAMETER...IS LOCATED
NEAR 18N43W AND IS MOVING W 10 TO 15 KNOTS. ANOTHER MIDDLE/UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS LOCATED NEAR 22N22W AND IS MOVING
SLOWLY WEST. A 10 TO 12 DEGREE WIDE BAND OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT IS CENTERED FROM THE AFRICAN COAST AT 15N TO 10N30W TO
04N50W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED THROUGH 32N58W TO
27N70W TO THE CUBA COAST AT 79W AND IS MARKED BY A BAND OF
CLOUDS ABOUT 4 DEGREES WIDE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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