[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN ATLC GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
WATERS N OF 28N W OF 78W FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT EXPIRING BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUN. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA AT 05N09W
TO 01N16W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO A
ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 00N27W...THEN TURNS NW TO
02N34W...THEN SW TO THE S AMERICAN COAST AT THE EQUATOR.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ALONG AND
TO THE N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 05N09W TO 04N11W TO 04N15W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OBSERVED BOTH N AND S OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 30 NM OF
LINES FROM 03N17W TO 02N22W AND FROM 02N09W TO 00N12W. DENSE
CIRRIFORM CLOUDS SURROUND THE ITCZ FROM 02S TO 06N BETWEEN 37W
AND 54W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION POSSIBLE UNDER THESE
UPPER CLOUDS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING E ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
ITS MEAN AXIS EXTENDING S ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 30N85W
TO 25N87W. ZONAL UPPER FLOW IS NOTED ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE N OF 24N. A NEARLY STATIONARY E TO W SURFACE FRONT IS
DISSIPATING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AT 23N93W. A TROUGH IS DEVELOPING NE FROM THE LOW TO
30N86W. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE ALONG THIS TROUGH TONIGHT. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED TO THE W OF A
LINE FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE N
GULF BY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER ANTICYCLONE OVER COLOMBIA. THE RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY
VERY DRY UPPER AIR DOMINATING THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DISSIPATING
IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WHICH WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATING SHEAR LINES. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
ARE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE NOCTURNAL WINDS THAT
HAVE BEEN APPROACHING GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA EACH
NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.

HISPANIOLA...
TOWERING CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PORTION OF
HAITI BUT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AT BEST AS
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE EXTREMELY DRY. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF THE CONUS
PRECEDED BY A DENSE CLOUD SHIELD WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM
32N68W TO 27N77W. SCATTERED MODERATE LOW AND MID LEVELS CLOUDS
ARE OBSERVED MOVING NE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST N OF 27N. A BROAD
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STALLING FROM 32N58W TO 25N70W AND
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE FL STRAITS. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SURFACE HIGH JUST SE OF
THE AZORES HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 25N63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NELSON


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