[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sat Jan 25 05:04:20 CST 2014


AXNT20 KNHC 251108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT S OF 21N W OF 95W
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. PLEASE SEE THE
HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS
MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

W ATLC GALE WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON N OF 29N
W OF 78W FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE W OF A FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE OFF NE FLORIDA. THIS WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUN. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST UNDER WMO/AWIPS
HEADERS MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC
NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N15W TO 1N19W WHERE THE ITCZ
BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 25N AND 46W
BEFORE TURNING S OF THE EQUATOR INTO SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO JUST S OF THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 4N-21N AND N OF 3N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA E OF
1W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS AND INTO THE W ATLC AND
DIPS S OVER THE N GULF TO 26N SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
ENTERS THE GULF FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 24N80W AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N85W TO 25N91W WHERE IT TURNS
S INTO THE MEXICO JUST E OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT W OF 90W. NORTHERLY WINDS
TO GALE FORCE ARE BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE SW GULF. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS ARE UNDER NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. OVERCAST LOW TO MID CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS COVER THE GULF N OF 26N E OF 94W AND
ALL OF THE W GULF W OF 94W. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE SE GULF S OF THE FRONT TO NW CUBA E OF 84W. THE FRONT
IS BEGINNING TO STALL AND WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY SAT AND
MOVE NE ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVER THE NE GULF. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE N GULF BY MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED INLAND OVER
COLOMBIA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM A DISSIPATED FRONT/SHEAR LINE REMAINS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM SW
HAITI OVER JAMAICA TO NE HONDURAS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 17N
W OF 84W. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE W
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH WINDS APPROACHING GALE FORCE OFF THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE ALSO GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SW HAITI AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF W PANAMA AND COSTA RICA W OF 81W TO THE NICARAGUA BORDER.
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. TRADE WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON SUN BEFORE RETURNING
TO A FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ON MON.

HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF SW HAITI. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST
OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FORMING. HOWEVER
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE THE ISLAND
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MON.

ATLANTIC...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS AND N GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS
OVER THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA E
OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N61W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N71W THROUGH THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM OVER NE
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO BEYOND 32N73W. A
REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING
NEAR 32N58W AND CONTINUES ALONG 26N65W TO E CUBA NEAR 21N75W.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS FROM THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N45W. AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 24N15W THROUGH AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 23N19W ALONG 17N39W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1039 HIGH NEAR THE AZORES. STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE BY LATE
TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SUN MERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT SUN NIGHT.
THE RESULTANT WEAK BOUNDARY WILL RETROGRADE INTO THE SE BAHAMAS
MON.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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