[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT IS ALONG 31N65W 20N75W. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS ALONG
31N69W 23N80W. EXPECT SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND
SEA HEIGHTS 9 TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 25N WITHIN 270 NM TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE FIRST FRONT. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE
NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT TO 59W. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 13 FEET TO THE
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN THE FRONTS. EXPECT ALSO NORTHWEST WINDS 20
TO 30 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 13 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO
THE WEST OF THE SECOND FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 1N23W 1N37W TO
1N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED
TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 7N
BETWEEN 8W AND 40W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 55W TO THE SOUTH OF 7N...MOSTLY INLAND
ACROSS GUYANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS TROUGH.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE
WESTERNMOST PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE
FLORIDA STRAITS...ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COLD AIR HAS
SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 28N64W AND 24N68W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO WITHIN 250 NM TO THE WEST OF THE
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 20N72W.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM TEXAS
ACROSS INTERIOR MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20
KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE GALE-FORCE WINDS FOR THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

THE COLD FRONT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE KEY WEST
METROPOLITAN AREA. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...A COLD FRONT FROM 24N80W TO 20N91W TO 18N93W.
EXPECT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 11 FEET TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO THE EAST OF 89W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE
TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT TO 24N AND WEST TO 95W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N64W 26N70W 23N73W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N73W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...TO 18N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...CURVING TO 13N83W ALONG
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO 14N79W AND 9N80W ALONG THE PANAMA COAST.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.80 IN
BERMUDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...POSSIBLY MORE CONCENTRATED
TO THE NORTHEAST OF 11N62W 14N70W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
22/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.42 IN
GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM 9N80W IN PANAMA BEYOND 7N83W INTO
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED DIRECTLY TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS FROM 1N TO
6N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 10.5N TO 15N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE
ALSO COVERS HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW
CLOUDS COVER BARAHONA...SANTO DOMINGO...PUNTA CANA...
SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER PORT-AU-
PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A RIDGE. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS THE AREA...WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND WILL COVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF HISPANIOLA WITH AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
RIDGE. NORTHERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF HISPANIOLA WITH A SEPARATE CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.
THIS SITUATION WILL LAST FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. EASTERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL DISSIPATE...LEAVING ONLY THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 16N41W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 22N BETWEEN 34W AND 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE REST OF THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 28W AND 50W.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF THE 32N64W-TO-23N73W FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N35W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET FROM 14N TO 24N TO THE EAST OF 50W.
EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET
ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net