[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N12W TO 04N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 04N16W TO 01N28W TO 0N40W. CONVECTION...SCATTERED
MODERATE AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 04N-07N EAST OF 15W.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM BETWEEN 13W-20W AND FROM 0N-06N
BETWEEN 20W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF
LOUISIANA NEAR 28N90W THAT IS PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. BOTH WATER VAPOR AND
SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR ACROSS THE GULF WHICH IS
SUPPORTING CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU NIGHT WHEN THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW BASIN. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE
CENTRAL GULF. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP IN THE NW
GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN U.S.
TO THE WESTERN ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUPPORTS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 19N76W TO 15N81W TO 10N82W. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY SUPPORTS ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL HISPANIOLA.
MOSTLY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ACROSS THE
REMAINDER BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. NORTHERLY WINDS OF 15
KT ARE WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHILE TRADES OF 10-15 KT
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE EAST OF IT. REMNANT SHOWERS FROM THE
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER THE NW
BASIN THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT IN THE
ATLC CURRENTLY ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT REACHING EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA FRI MORNING.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE SW N ATLC TO EASTERN CUBA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT FRI MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL OVER EASTERN CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN U.S.
TO THE WESTERN ATLC WITH BASE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUPPORTS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N62W TO 24N69W
TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N34W WHICH IS PROVIDING WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO STALL BY FRIDAY MORNING WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE SW
NORTH ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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