[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221143
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM A 989 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 37N71W
EXTENDS S-SW TO 32N73W TO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
27N80W. NORTH OF 29N WEST OF THE FRONT...NORTHWESTERLY GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH 22/1200 UTC. IN ADDITION...SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING NORTH OF 29N WITHIN 150 NM EAST OF THE
COLD FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 22/1200 UTC. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 09N13W TO
05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N17W TO 02N22W TO 02N36W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 23W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A VIGOROUS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN SEABOARD WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM OVER THE DELMARVA S TO 31N76W THEN SE TO OVER THE
SE GULF NEAR 24N83W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF
NEAR 26N82W SW TO 21N92 THEN SOUTH TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR
18N93W. THE FRONT REMAINS MOSTLY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS MORNING
HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY UPON PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE
IS ANCHORED FROM EASTERN TEXAS BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
30N94W S-SW TO A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO
NEAR 22N99W. THE RIDGING AS A WHOLE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF BY LATE WEDNESDAY. THE
RIDGE WILL BE REINFORCED ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG N-NE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BASIN LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
ACTIVE WEATHER IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W
SW TO 13N83W OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN
90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...EAST OF THE FRONT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...SKIES REMAIN RELATIVELY
CLEAR THIS MORNING WITHIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES...STRONGEST
OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW ISOLATED PASSING LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 60W-67W...INCLUDING
THE LESSER ANTILLES.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED TO THE NW FROM SE BAHAMAS NEAR
23N74W SW ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 18N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS THE FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. SEABOARD ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT
ANALYZED FROM A 989 MB LOW CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA
NEAR 37N71W. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER S-SW TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 27N80W AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
OF THE LOW N OF 28N W OF 68W TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FURTHERMORE...A STATIONARY FRONT LIES TO THE SE OF THE COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM 30N68W SW EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W AND INTO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 26N...
WHILE N OF 26N SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING BETWEEN
58W-70W. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
STATIONARY FRONT LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N35W. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE NOTED E OF
60W...ASIDE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT...IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NEAR 17N41W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 13N-22N
BETWEEN 30W-40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net