[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 202353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE EASTERN U.S.
COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT GENERATING WESTERLY-NORTHWESTERLY GALE
FORCE WINDS WEST OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUBSIDE WED MORNING. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA AFRICA
NEAR 05N09W TO 03N14W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N14W TO 02N30W TO
THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 01S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 17W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT DISSIPATES ACROSS THE SE GULF
ALONG 25N80W TO 24N85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
DISSIPATING BOUNDARY. AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15
KT REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS ADVECTING
SOME MOISTURE TO THE NE BASIN N OF 26N WHICH IS SUPPORTING
BROKEN SKIES. OTHERWISE...DRY AIR AT THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVELS
MAINTAIN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN. A COLD FRONT
MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW WATERS
BY TUE MORNING AND EXIT THE SE GULF WED MORNING. NORTHERLY WIND
FLOW UP TO 30 KT WILL BUILD WEST OF THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC THAT ENTERS THE BASIN BY
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING
BOUNDARY ALONG 16N80W TO COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA NEAR
10N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY N OF 17N AS WELL AS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 79W-85W. EAST
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A
RIDGE GENERATES DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE N-NE CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MONA PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA. IN TERMS
OF WIND...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-20 KT ARE WEST OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...TRADEWINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF THE COAST
OF COLOMBIA WHILE TRADES UP TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE REMAINDER
BASIN. EXCEPT FOR THE REGIONS MENTIONED...FAIR WEATHER IS
ELSEWHERE BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR IN THE UPPER AND LOWER
LEVELS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TUE
MORNING BUT REMNANT CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH
WED EVENING.

HISPANIOLA...
PRESENTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE MONA PASSAGE BEING
SUPPORTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ACROSS
HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT THAT MOVE ACROSS
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY DRY
AIR SUBSIDENCE. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGHOUT TUE MORNING AND THEN RESUME WED NIGHT AS A NEW
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BRUSH THE NORTHERN ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. TO A BASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A PAIR
OF FRONTS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE LEADING FRONT IS ANALYZED
AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 30N57W SW TO 23N67W TO EASTERN CUBA
NEAR 19N74W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING BOUNDARY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF
22N AS WELL AS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 70W-77W. THE SECOND BOUNDARY
IS ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 26N77W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING FRONT TOWARDS
THE SE GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
06N-21N BETWEEN 31W-42W. OTHERWISE...A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1032 MB HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND SUPPORTS FAIR
WEATHER. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE SW N ATLC BY TUE
NIGHT GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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