[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Mon Jan 20 23:38:37 CST 2014


AXNT20 KNHC 210542
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE
EASTERN U.S. COAST ON TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT FORECAST WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS N OF 28N WEST OF THE FRONT.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N16W TO 02N21W TO 02N37W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 48W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-04N BETWEEN 21W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BASIN THIS EVENING BETWEEN BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER WESTERN MEXICO. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING N OF 24N
E OF 87W WITHIN LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLIES AT THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC
ALONG 24N TO 90W. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N75W SW TO A
BASE OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14N85W.
MOSTLY DRY AIR AND OVERALL SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROUGHING...HOWEVER A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ANALYZED FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W TO
JAMAICA TO THE SOUTHERN NICARAGUA COAST NEAR 11N83W. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT IS GENERATING
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT...UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESUMES OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT AND
OVERALL FAIR SKIES AT THE SURFACE FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TRADES REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE GENERALLY HIGHEST S OF
16N BETWEEN 68W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS NEAR 21N71W SW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND SW NORTH ATLC. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N68W SW TO THE
NW BAHAMAS TO THE MIDDLE FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W. THE FRONT
REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS EVENING...HOWEVER A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT AND STRONGER W-NW WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WAS INDICATED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. FARTHER
EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 32N55W SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR
21N71W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N33W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE NOTED E OF 60W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-
OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 18N43W. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 08N-22N BETWEEN 32W-43W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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