[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201737
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE EASTERN
U.S. COAST ON TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT FORECAST
NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF
FRONT. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LIBERIA AT 06N10W TO 03N15W. THE
ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 03N15W TO 02N22W TO 02N35W TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 01S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-
05N BETWEEN 12W-16W...AND FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 20W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC... A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N88W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE
WITHIN 360 NM OF THE HIGH CENTER. FURTHER E...A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO THE SE GULF AT
25N85W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF KEY WEST
FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SUPPORTING
THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER S TEXAS AND THE NW
GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND
FLORIDA. A 70-90 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM SE TEXAS TO THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND CONTINUES INTO THE W ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN
24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE GULF AND BE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO BE OVER
THE NW GULF MOVING E AND MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 1500 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR
12N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THIS LINE. 20 KT
NE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THIS LINE. 15-25 KT
TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BELIZE...GUATEMALA... HONDURAS...NICARAGUA
...COSTA RICA...AND W PANAMA...W OF 80W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS ALONG 60W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS
TO PERSIST OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREAS.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWWARD PASSAGE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER
HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO SUPPRESSING ALL
CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME SHOWERS TO
DRIFT OVER THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N73W
TO S FLORIDA AT 27N80W MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N58W TO 25N65W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THESE FRONTS. A LARGE
1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N35W. OF NOTE
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
17N45W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 32W-43W. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM 30N58W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TO BECOME ALL STATIONARY WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE
OTHER COLD FRONT TO PASS OVER THE N BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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