[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201141
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE
EASTERN U.S. COAST ON TUESDAY BRINGING WITH IT FORECAST WESTERLY
GALE FORCE CONDITIONS N OF 30N WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE FRONT.
SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
05N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N16W TO 02N22W TO 02N33W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 08W-13W...AND FROM
01N-07N BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING THAT SUPPORTS A RELATIVELY
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA OF FLORIDA
NEAR 28N83W SW TO 25N92W. OVERALL...THE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY
PRECIPITATION-FREE...WITH A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT NOTED ON RECENT
SCATTEROMETER DATA. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N93W INFLUENCES THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
LATE MONDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE
TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN THIS MORNING WITH THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO JAMAICA TO 13N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S
OF 17N. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND
NE WINDS...AND N-NE TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN EAST OF THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GENERALLY S OF
16N BETWEEN 68W-83W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE ISLAND
AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS NEAR 22N72W SW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN 180 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT FOR MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 36N66W TO A BASE NEAR 26N73W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N74W SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 29N81W. THE FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION-FREE
THIS MORNING...HOWEVER A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT IS INDICATED ON
EARLIER OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA. FARTHER EAST...A
STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC FROM 32N58W SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N35W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE NOTED E OF 60W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-
OFF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N45W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 35W-47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net