[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON JAN 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N10W TO
05N11W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N11W TO 03N24W TO 03N29W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 41W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 14W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING THAT SUPPORTS A RELATIVELY
WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA NEAR
29N83W W-SW TO 26N90W TO 25N98W. OVERALL...THE FRONT REMAINS
FAIRLY PRECIPITATION-FREE...WITH A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT NOTED ON A
RECENT 20/0228 UTC ASCAT PASS. OTHERWISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N93W
INFLUENCES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE RIDGING WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE MONDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST EARLY
TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INFLUENCES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN THIS EVENING WITH THE BASE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS NOTED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS
TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SW
NORTH ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA VIA THE WINDWARD PASSAGE THEN
SW TO WESTERN JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W TO 12N82W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM WEST OF THE FRONT AND
WITHIN 120 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE
INFLUENCES THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES AND NE WINDS...AND N-NE TRADES PERSIST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN EAST OF THE FRONT WITH THE
STRONG WINDS GENERALLY S OF 15N BETWEEN 67W-83W.

...HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AS A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED
FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS NEAR 22N72W SW THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TO WESTERN JAMAICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE OVERALL TROUGHING ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 34N71W TO A BASE NEAR 26N77W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS
A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N76W SW TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
NEAR 30N81W. THE FRONT REMAINS PRECIPITATION-FREE THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT IS INDICATED ON RECENT
20/0230 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA. FARTHER EAST...A
STATIONARY FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW
NORTH ATLC FROM 32N60W SW TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N72W TO
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N36W. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE NOTED E OF 60W IS ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT-
OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 17N45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 34W-46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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