[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 181115
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
06N10W TO 03N15W TO 02N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N22W TO 01N37W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
01N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 02N-08N EAST OF 23W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 70 NM
NORTH OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 22W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM PUNTA GORDA
FLORIDA NEAR 26N82W SW TO 25N86W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 25N94W TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG
WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EXCEPT FOR
THE NE GULF N OF THE FRONT E OF 88W WHERE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
20 KT DOMINATE...NORTHERLIES OF 10-15 KT ABOUNDS ELSEWHERE. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND GULF
WATERS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
FEATURE. ALSO TONIGHT...A NEW COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW BASIN
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO WEST OF
JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W SW TO 14N81W TO 10N81W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AND 100 NM
EAST OF IT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WITH RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE AIR WHICH CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SOME PATCHES OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN WHICH MAY CONTINUE
TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN
TERMS OF WIND...NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-25 KT SPREADS
WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TRADEWINDS FROM TO 15-20 KT
DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. THE PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE
SW NORTH ATLC IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT LATER
TODAY WHILE THE PORTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO STALL
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TAIL OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER
WESTERN HISPANIOLA.

...HISPANIOLA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AIR AND OVERALL
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ISLAND. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
ALSO DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH IS PROVIDING WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR WEATHER. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER
EASTERN CUBA IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE TONIGHT AND THEN IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER
HAITI THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 30N68W SW TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 23N73W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS
WELL AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GENERATED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST
OF THE BOUNDARY TO 77W. THE SAME TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORTS A
SECONDARY FRONT ANALYZED AS A COLD FRONT FROM 30N77W SW TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. EAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...A 1023
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N57W WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
SUNDAY MORNING. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH
N OF THE AREA COVERS THE REMAINDER ATLC. OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLC...THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N10W TO 26N16W
WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 14N-27N
BETWEEN 33W-48W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LEADING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A COLD FRONT LATER TODAY
AND THEN IS FORECAST TO STALL AGAIN THROUGHOUT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
SECONDARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE SW N ATLC BY
SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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