[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
06N10W TO 04N14W TO 03N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N18W TO 02N25W TO 01N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N EAST OF 18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 50 NM NORTH OF THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING
DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER EASTERN TEXAS NEAR 31N97W. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT AT 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM WESTERN
FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W SW TO 26N86W TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR
25N90W. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH DRY AIR AT THE
LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE GULF. EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW RANGES FROM 20-25
KT...MOSTLY NORTHERLIES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. IN THE
NW BASIN N OF 25N...LIGHTER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CIRCLES AROUND THE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER TEXAS. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER
TEXAS WILL DRIFT TO SE LOUISIANA LATER THIS MORNING THUS PUSHING
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL
GULF WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO
NE MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND GULF WATERS SUNDAY MORNING WHILE A NEW COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE NORTHERN BASIN. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO WEST OF
JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W SW TO 15N81W TO 11N82W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IS ENHANCING
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 230 NM WEST OF THE BOUNDARY AND 50 NM
EAST OF IT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN WITH RELATIVELY DRY
AND STABLE AIR WHICH CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW SOME PATCHES OF LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN WHICH ARE
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER SOME OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN
TERMS OF WIND...NORTHERLY-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 15-
25 KT SPREADS WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXCEPT WITHIN 100 NM
FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE TRADEWINDS OF 25 KT
ABOUNDS...LIGHTER TRADES FROM TO 15-20 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER EASTERN CUBA THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY MORNING WHERE LATER THE SAME DAY IS EXPECTED TO MERGE
WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE DRY AIR AND OVERALL
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ISLAND. THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW
ALSO DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WHICH IS PROVIDING WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND FAIR WEATHER. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS ENHANCED BY
DAYTIME HEATING...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND
THROUGHOUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. TO THE WESTERN N ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE SW NORTH ATLC FROM 30N68W SW TO THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N74W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W.
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT GENERATED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EAST
OF THE TROUGH SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST OF THE BOUNDARY TO
79W. FARTHER EAST...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 26N57W WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A REMNANT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 34N54W
TO 25N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE AREA COVERS THE
REMAINDER ATLC. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 18N-29N BETWEEN 34W-47W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net