[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 172356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 17 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO
5N13W AND 3N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N19W TO 1N30W...AND TO
THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 11W AND 19W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CUTTING THROUGH THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY INTO COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...
AND ALABAMA...AND EVENTUALLY TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N98W.
THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO 25N95W. THE FRONT BECOMES A
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND IT CONTINUES FROM 25N95W TO
24N96W AND THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE
THROUGH 30N81W IN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO 25N90W IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AWAY FROM THE FRONT...UNDER UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND ON TOP OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 87W/88W...

ICAO STATION KGBK IS REPORTING CLEARING SKIES AFTER SEVERAL
OBSERVATIONS OF CLOUD CEILINGS FROM 6000 FEET TO 7000 FEET. ICAO
STATION KATP IS REPORTING CLOUD CEILINGS AT 6500 FEET AND AT
8500 FEET. ICAO STATION KIPN IS REPORTING A CLOUD CEILING AT
9000 FEET. CLEAR SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS
AT THE STATIONS THAT ARE COMPARATIVELY CLOSER TO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST IS REPORTING A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. CLEAR
SKIES/FAIR SKIES ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT...THE 6 HOUR FORECAST OF A COLD FRONT FROM 29N83W TO
27N90W. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT TO 90W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A SHALLOW COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 27N70W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N70W TO 22N74W IN THE
BAHAMAS...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TO 17N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 11N82W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N60W 25N68W 20N74W 15N80W
9N80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 17/1200 UTC... ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01
KNHC...IS 0.33 IN BERMUDA.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS
DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...EXCEPT FOR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN
LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA STATIONARY FRONT.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
17/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.31 IN
MONTEGO BAY.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 2N78W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 4N86W IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED DIRECTLY TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...A BROAD STATIONARY FRONT FROM 20N76W TO 10N82W.
WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET. A
SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
70W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS
TO 9 FEET ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 79W. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN LA
ROMANA...IN PUNTA CANA...AND IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTO DOMINGO...SANTIAGO...AND IN PUERTO PLATA. FEW LOW CLOUDS
ARE IN PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL START
THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD ALONG 75W...ALONG 63W/64W AT 24
HOURS...AND THEN BE ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 25N57W TO 20N60W 15N63W 11N65W. THE GFS
MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE WILL START THE 48-
HOUR FORECAST ALONG 67W/68W IN THE MONA PASSAGE...SHIFT TO A
LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 20N65W...TO 11N64W.
THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-
TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE WILL PASS THROUGH 25N67W TO 20N75W IN
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...ACROSS JAMAICA INTO EASTERN HONDURAS AT THE
START OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AT THE START. SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL
CROSS HISPANIOLA AT 24 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE WILL BE ALONG 17N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 15N65W IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO CENTRAL HISPANIOLA. SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS OF HISPANIOLA.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 24N52W 14N52W AND 7N58W. A 1020 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N54W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES AWAY
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 33N51W AND 33N47W. A SECOND TROUGH CURVES
AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N54W AND 26N55W. A 1021 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 50W AND
57W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA FROM THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 54W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH MOROCCO...THE
WESTERN SAHARA...AND MAURITANIA TO 14N18W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N14W TO 31N18W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 50W. A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
IS NEAR 35N39W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...A TROUGH FROM 31N53W TO 25N55W. WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH TO 35W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST
CONSISTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 50W. EXPECT
ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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