[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
06N10W TO 03N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 03N21W TO 03N32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
01S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 04W-
20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-
45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER NEAR 29N90W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER AND 10
KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT
26.5N80W TO THE SE GULF AT 24N84W TO THE W GULF AT 24N92W TO
26N96W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE FRONT IS MAINLY VOID OF
PRECIPITATION. PRESENTLY SOUTH FLORIDA IS 20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORTH FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE
GULF. A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE SW GULF TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE GULF.
ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO S TEXAS AGAIN MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA AT
21N76W TO NEAR HONDURAS AT 16N83W TO NEAR S NICARAGUA AT 11N83W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. 20 KT N WINDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF
THE FRONT. 15-25 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BELIZE...GUATEMALA...
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND W PANAMA...W OF 80W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WITH AXIS ALONG 67W. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR A COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT AND EXTEND
FROM E CUBA TO E HONDURAS WITH SHOWERS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER HISPANIOLA. UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO SUPPRESSING ALL CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO REMAIN OVER E CUBA DUE TO THE
STATIONARY FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM
30N76W. TO S FLORIDA AT 26.5N80W MOSTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N66W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 23N73W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO E CUBA AT
21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONT. A
LARGE 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N38W. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 25N47W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N-30N BETWEEN 30W-45W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS FOR ONE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 30N64W TO E CUBA WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net