[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161147
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY JAN 16/1200 UTC
ON THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 28N WEST OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
TO EXTEND NEAR 31N77W TO 23N81W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
08N12W SW TO 02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N19W TO 0N30W TO 02N40W TO 01N50W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE FROM 0N-04N BETWEEN 07W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-08N BETWEEN 31W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT AT 0900 UTC EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTHERN
FLORIDA TO 25N81W...ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO WESTERN
CUBA NEAR 23N82W. REMNANT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE
IN THE SE GULF EAST OF A LINE FROM 26N81W TO 21N86W.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED
BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N95W. IN
TERMS OF WINDS...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT
SPREADS OVER THE EASTERN BASIN E OF 90W WHILE LIGHTER WINDS UP
TO 15 KT ARE WEST OF THAT LONGITUDE. EXCEPT FOR THE REGION IN
THE SE GULF ABOVE-MENTIONED...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG
WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE NW GULF. BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE IT IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS TWO COLD
FRONTS OVER THE NW BASIN. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N77W SW TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W
WHILE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N83W SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N87W. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W.
OVERCAST SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WEST OF 80W. IN TERMS OF
WIND...NORTHERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT
SPREADS WEST OF 80W. EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL BASIN WHERE
TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT CONTINUE...LIGHTER WINDS UP
TO 15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. BY LATE TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO
NORTHERN COSTA RICA WHILE THE REINFORCING FRONT WILL BE NEAR
CENTRAL CUBA SW TO EASTERN HONDURAS. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRIDAY OVER CUBA WHILE THE
PRIMARY FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT OVER HAITI.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE VERY DRY AIR OVER THE
ISLAND THUS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A PATCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS HAITI WHICH MAY BE TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS
THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO BE OVER EASTERN CUBA
LATER THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. RAINSHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE FRONT DRIFTS TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE TONIGHT AND THEN TO HAITI WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
STATIONARY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD
FRONTS. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N72W TO CENTRAL
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W TO NE CUBA NEAR 21N77W. A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N79W TO SE FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W TO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTS IS WEST OF 70W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN
ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW SUPPORTS A 1015 MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR 25N45W FROM WHICH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS
ALONG 28N41W TO 25N37W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN
200 NM NE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 41W-45W. THE REINFORCING COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE GALE FORCE WINDS LATER THIS
MORNING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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