[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU JAN 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NW GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY JAN 16/1200 UTC
ON THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 27N NW OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO
EXTEND NEAR 31N77W TO 23N81W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
07N12W TO 02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N19W TO 0S24W TO 02S43W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 01N-04N BETWEEN 06W-16W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-07N BETWEEN 28W-49W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SE GULF CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT THAT AT 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN
FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W SW TO 29N83W TO 24N85W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. EAST OF THE TROUGH ALOFT AND ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GENERATES
DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS EAST OF THE FRONT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SURFACE RIDGING IS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 26N96W. IN TERMS OF
WINDS...NORTHERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT
SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE NW GULF WHERE LIGHTER
WINDS UP TO 15 KT DOMINATE. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE ALONG
WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER
WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE
GULF LATER THIS MORNING AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL BECOME THE
DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGHOUT FRIDAY MORNING WHEN A NEW COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT AT 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N80W SW TO THE
COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 16N88W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SUPPORTS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
NW BASIN WEST OF A LINE FROM 19N77W TO 15N82W. IN TERMS OF
WIND...NORTHERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT
SPREADS WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN THUS SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
SUPPORTING TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND SE BASIN. LIGHTER TRADEWINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE INHIBITS
DEEP CONVECTION. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD
TO EASTERN CUBA WHERE BY FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO A STATIONARY FRONT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW BASIN THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY EARLY FRIDAY OVER CENTRAL CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE VERY DRY AIR OVER THE
ISLAND THUS HINDERING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW A PATCH OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI WHICH MAY BE
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT TO BE OVER EASTERN CUBA LATER THIS MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHICH COULD
EXTEND FARTHER EAST INTO THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING ALONG THE
EASTERN CONUS TO A BASE OVER THE SE GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT AT 0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 30N74W SW TO THE WESTERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N77W TO NORTHERN CUBA NEAR 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WEST OF 74W. FARTHER
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW SUPPORTS A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 25N43W FROM WHICH AN
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 29N42W TO 28N37W WHERE IT
TRANSITIONS TO A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 18N38W. BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N41W TO
22N38W. THERE IS NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW
NORTH ATLC LATER THIS MORNING GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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