[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160012
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N96W.
STRONG N-NW WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO COMMENCE AT
16/1200 UTC WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
05N10W TO 02N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N20W TO 00N22W TO 00N37W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 2S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N
BETWEEN 05W-20W...AND FROM 2S-6N BETWEEN 31W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT HAS RECENTLY EXITED THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED IN THE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 19N96W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR OVER S FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF. A
1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N99W WITH FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE NW GULF. A RATHER TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS OVER THE W GULF PRODUCING 25-30 KT NORTHERLY WINDS.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 92W SUPPORTING THE REINFORCING COLD
FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TAIL END OF THE REINFORCING
COLD FRONT TO BE OVER CENTRAL CUBA WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION.
ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE E TO THE NW GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W
CUBA AT 23N80W TO TO N GUATEMALA AT 17N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN NW OF THE FRONT. 10-25 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN...BELIZE...GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA
RICA...AND W PANAMA...W OF 80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT THE NW
CARIBBEAN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM E CUBA AT TO NICARAGUA WITH
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AREINFORCING FRONT TO EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH SHOWERS AND
CONVECTION.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA MOVING W. UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING ALL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE SHOWERS TO
ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND WITH THE TRADEWINDS. EXPECT IN 48 HOURS
FOR SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND FROM THE W DUE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N75W
TO W CUBA AT 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT. A GALE IS FORECAST OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC BEHIND A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON 16/1200 UTC. SEE ABOVE. A DEEP LAYERED
COLD-CORE LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N43W WITH ESTIMATED
SURFACE PRESSURE OF 1012 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NE QUADRANT FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 37W-42W. 30 KT WINDS
ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE EAST SEMICIRCLE. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR TWO COLD FRONT TO BE OVER
THE NW ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS AND CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE E ATLANTIC LOW TO MOVE W TO 25N50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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