[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO SW TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 22N98W.
STRONG N-NW WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST TO COMMENCE AT
16/1200 UTC WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH
ATLC AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
05N09W TO 03N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 03N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 28N. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N BETWEEN 06W-15W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-03N BETWEEN 19W-22W...AND FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 27W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION S-SW TO A BROAD BASE OVER
THE NW GULF. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS TWO COLD FRONTS...ONE
ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE SE GULF TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE OTHER COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE
NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AREA SW TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO NEAR 22N98W. THE EASTERNMOST FRONT EXHIBITS THE MOST
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. MUCH OF THIS AREA IS LOCATED WITHIN THE AREA OF MAXIMUM
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. THE SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT
REMAINS LACKLUSTER WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION...HOWEVER A COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF N-NW
WINDS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN BY LATE THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SE FROM TEXAS TO THE WESTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET THIS AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS
ALOFT REMAIN DRY AND STABLE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER EACH ARE
EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED NEAR 15N75W CONTINUES TO FURTHER SUPPORT THE OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE OF THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...TRADES REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT E OF 82W WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS NOTED S OF 16N BETWEEN 68W-77W...INCLUDING 20 TO
25 KT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. W OF
82W...NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE INVADED THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE SE GULF OF MEXICO
AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOISTURE
INCREASES W OF 80W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WEST
OF A LINE FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N83W TO 16N87W. TO THE
SOUTHEAST...A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 14N82W
TO 21N81W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
AXIS FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 78W-85W. OTHERWISE...POSSIBLE LOW-
TOPPED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW.

...HISPANIOLA...
WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE DRY AIR AND
OVERALL STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ISLAND...A FEW ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY THE MOST ENHANCED CLOUDINESS
AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 69W-71W...
INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS INDICATED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N72W TO BEYOND 32N64W. THE TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N75W TO THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N80W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT.
THIS PARTICULAR FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE STATIONARY AS A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
WESTERN GULF MARCHES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. GALE
FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY 16/1200 UTC IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC
CONTINUES TO BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 41N44W SW TO NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N70W. FARTHER EAST...A CUT-OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 27N41W THAT SUPPORTS AN OCCLUDED 1012 MB LOW
CENTERED NEAR 27N42W. MOST CONVECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 32W-42W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED S-SE OF THE
AZORES NEAR 33N25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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