[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED JAN 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE SW NORTH ATLC BY
JAN 16/1800 UTC. W TO NW GALE WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REGION
N OF 27N WEST OF A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TO EXTEND NEAR 31N73W
TO 22N78W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR
05N09W TO 03N14W TO 03N20W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 03N20W TO 0N33W TO 02N40W TO THE COAST OF
BRAZIL NEAR 0S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
AND TSTMS ARE FROM 0N-04N BETWEEN 03W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02S-09N BETWEEN 18W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SW TO A BASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 0900 UTC FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO NW CUBA NEAR 23N82W...INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. EAST OF THE
TROUGH ALOFT AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE GENERATES DIFFLUENCE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS
BETWEEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A LINE FROM ST PETERSBURG
FLORIDA SW TO THE GULF OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W.
OTHERWISE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS FROM WEST
PALM BEACH TO MIAMI. THE FORMERLY MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH ALSO
SUPPORTS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W SW TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NW GULF HAS DISSIPATED. HOWEVER...SURFACE
RIDGING CONTINUES ACROSS THE REMAINDER BASIN AND PROVIDES
NORTHERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT BETWEEN
BOTH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. STRONGER NORTHERLY-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
UP TO 30 KT IS WEST OF THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH DRY AIR AT THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS
SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WITHIN A PERIOD OF
24 HOURS...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE NW GULF DISPLACING THE
REINFORCING COLD FRONT EASTWARD FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
SW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. COLD FRONT TRAILING NORTHERLY-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN
THROUGHOUT THAT PERIOD.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WHILE THE BASE OF A TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN
BASIN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR SUBSIDING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE BASIN WHICH IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES SW TO A BASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
THAT AT 0900 UTC ENTERS THE NW BASIN FROM WESTERN CUBA NEAR
22N84W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N87W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
GENERATED BY THE RIDGE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS WEST OF
84W...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE
TROUGH IS NOTED ALONG 20N81W TO 11N83W GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF 11N BETWEEN 79W-84W. A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS AN AXIS INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN
THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SUPPORTING TRADEWINDS
IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE BASIN.
LIGHTER TRADEWINDS UP TO 15 KT ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER CARIBBEAN. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
EASTERN CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS BY THU MORNING. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW BASIN THROUGHOUT THAT PERIOD.

...HISPANIOLA...
A MIDDLE-LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED SOUTH OF HAITI
INHIBITS DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE.
HOWEVER...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ENTERING THE EASTERN ISLAND WHICH MAY ENHANCE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. BY THU NIGHT AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE RAINSHOWERS
ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WESTERN HISPANIOLA.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES SW TO A BASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF CONTINUES
TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED AT 0900 UTC FROM 30N74W SW TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 25N80W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE N OF 22N WEST OF 72W.
FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC...A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 26N40W SUPPORTS A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N39W
FROM WHICH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 22N41W TO 20N43W. AN
OCCLUDED FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 28N37W TO
26N35W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 22N35W
TO 17N37W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 33W-42W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SW NORTH ATLC BY LATE WED NIGHT GENERATING
GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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