[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
NEAR 32N76W S-SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. STRONG N-NW
WINDS OF GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO DIMINISH BELOW WARNING CRITERIA BY 17/0000 UTC. SEE LATEST
NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR
06N10W TO 02N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 02N21W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 27N THE ALONG THE
EQUATOR TO 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-05N
BETWEEN 06W-14W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 34W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
OVER THE GULF BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXITED THE REGION IN THE SW NORTH ATLC
THIS MORNING. ONLY A PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWER OCCURRING WEST OF
A LINE FROM 25N81W TO 23N83W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY AIR AND STABLE AIR
ALOFT WITH A RELATIVELY LARGE AREAL SURFACE RIDGE PROVIDING FAIR
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED ON A TRIUMVIRATE OF HIGHS...A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER SW ALABAMA...A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NW GULF
NEAR 26N94W...AND A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL
MEXICO NEAR 22N99W. THE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AND ONCE AGAIN BE REINFORCED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY E OF 74W AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 14N76W TO BEYOND 25N67W.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL REGIME
REMAINS IN RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE...A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ARE ANALYZED ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...THE EASTERNMOST ONE ANALYZED FROM EASTERN CUBA TO
OFF THE COAST OF NE NICARAGUA. THE FRONT IS GRADUALLY BECOMING
STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE WIDELY
SCATTERED RELATIVELY LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. TO THE NW...A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION
ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO NORTHERN BELIZE NEAR 18N88W. THIS FRONT
EXHIBITS FAR LESS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...HOWEVER A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THE TWO FRONTS ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MERGE THEN STALL FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
REGION SW INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

...HISPANIOLA...
WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE DRY AIR AND
OVERALL STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE ISLAND...A FEW ISOLATED LOW-
TOPPED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ANALYZED
FROM EASTERN CUBA SW TO OFFSHORE OF NE NICARAGUA TO THE WEST OF
HISPANIOLA IS GOING TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND MOISTURE ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN ENERGETIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 36N78W OVER NORTH
CAROLINA SOUTH TO A BROAD BASE NEAR 26N78W. THIS TROUGHING
SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC
THIS AFTERNOON. THE EASTERN-MOST COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N71W S-SW TO THE SE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W
TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N77W. THE SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA NEAR 33N75W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 25N80W TO
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N82W. WITH THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTS AND AMPLE
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
OCCURRING WEST OF A LINE FROM 32N66W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
NEAR 20N74W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA WEST OF THE
REINFORCING FRONT. THE TWO FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE BY
THURSDAY AND BEGIN A GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE
WEAKENING DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1035 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE
AZORES NEAR 38N40W. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGING IS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N52W THAT SUPPORTS A SHALLOW 1017 MB
SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
21N50W THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO 30N42W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING OVER THE AREA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 42W-55W WITHIN THE
WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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