[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN INTENSE COLD-CORE LOW IS NEAR 24N42W WITH ESTIMATED PRESSURE
OF 1008 MB. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM OF THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL
14/0600 UTC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE
QUADRANT FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 34W-43W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 05N09W TO
03N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
03N19W TO 03N33W TO THE COAST OF SOTH AMERICA NEAR 00N48W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01S-06N BETWEEN 19W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUSIANA AT 29N91W TO N OF TAMPICO
MEXICO AT 23N98W. LIGHTNING DETECTION DEPICTS CONVECTION WITHIN
120 NM E OF FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE
OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N BETWEEN 83W-90W. A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LAND AND SEA CONTRAST IS OVER THE NE GULF
COAST E OF FRONT. LOW CEILINGS AND FOG ARE NOTED IN THIS WARM
SECTOR WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. 25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
OVER THE NW GULF W OF FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT. SW UPPER LEVEL
WINDS PREVAILS OVER THE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD
FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
WITH CONVECTION.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA ...AND
W PANAMA...FROM 08N-18N BETWEEN 80W-88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OVER JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS S OF 13N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPRESSING CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN INCREASE OF SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULAAND NW CARIBBEAN IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MOVING W. UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING ALL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE
SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER THE ISLAND.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N67W. THE TAIL END
OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N55W TO
28N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF FRONT. A COLD
CORE GALE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTS ARE OVER THE TROPICAL
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 24N42W. SEE ABOVE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S
FROM THE LOW TO 20N39W TO 16N40W TO 12N44W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS
NE FROM THE LOW TO 27N38W TO 28N31W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE QUADRANT FROM 23N-30N BETWEEN 34W-43W.
OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
25N42W IS ABOVE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS PRODUCING OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS
FROM 15N-30N BETWEEN 20W-32W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD
FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW ATLANTIC FROM 31N79W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA
WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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