[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131748
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN INTENSE COLD-CORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR 23N42W
WITH ESTIMATED MSLP OF 1010 MB HAS GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
35N28W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ANOTHER 12-18
HOURS N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED IN BANDS THAT WRAP AROUND
THE CENTER FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W...AND FROM 23N TO
30N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO
04N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
04N19W TO 03N26W TO 03N38W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 01N-06N BETWEEN 21W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG 100W-105W MOVING ACROSS TEXAS
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT FROM SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA TO LAREDO
TEXAS. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS EVIDENT ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
TEXAS INTO NE MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COVER MOST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF N OF
24N BETWEEN 85W-95W. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF
LATER TODAY...REACH FROM APALACHICOLA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
EARLY TUE...THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES S OF THE GULF TUE NIGHT. A
STRONGER COLD FRONT WITH REINFORCING COLD AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF ON WED.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH FRI...EXCEPT IN THE S CENTRAL PORTION NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS WED...THEN DISSIPATE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA THU. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY
AND STABLE AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED
OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. A FEW LOW-TOPPED TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY S OF 19N W OF 78W.
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BETWEEN 70W-82W
THROUGH TUE.

...HISPANIOLA...
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE ISLAND TODAY IN A FAIR AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION CENTERED
NEAR 20N73W. EXPECT GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO PERSIST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 54W SUPPORTS A COLD
FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE SUBTROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC FROM 31N57W
TO 28N67W. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED DURING
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS
NORTHEAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE
FRONT. SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 33N IS ANCHORED BY 1025 MB HIGH NEAR
33N70W. ANOTHER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A
1036 MB HIGH CENTERED S OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N28W. A WARM FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE GALE-FORCE LOW NEAR 23N42W TO 26N40W TO
27N35W...THEN CONTINUES AS A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTHERN PART OF A COLD FRONT NEAR 29N17W. BROAD-SCALE
DIVERGENCE EAST OF AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 42W IS PRODUCING
EXTENSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER A
LARGE AREA FROM 15N TO 26N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 23W-35W. A COLD FRONT
MOVING OFF THE COAST OF N FLORIDA TUE WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR
31N76W TO WESTERN CUBA TUE NIGHT... FROM 31N71W TO EASTERN CUBA
WED NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE BAHAMAS THU AND
FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL


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