[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131205
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON JAN 13 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
NEAR 22N42W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N42W TO 13N46W AND 10N54W.
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N11W TO 31N15W. THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY FROM 31N15W TO 29N20W AND 28N25W. THE FRONT BECOMES
WARM FROM 28N25W TO 25N35W TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 23N43W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO 20N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO 19N41W TO 16N48W. EXPECT...NORTH TO NORTHEAST GALE-
FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 12 TO 16 FEET FROM 26N TO 28N TO THE
EAST OF 39W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM
23N TO 29N BETWEEN 37W AND 42W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND OTHER SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 34W
AND 46W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 30N AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE
LINE 30N20W 25N33W 15N40W 10N50W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF
10N TO THE WEST OF 40W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
500 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SAME 30N20W 9N59W LINE. PLEASE
READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO
4N13W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 4N13W AND IT CONTINUES TO 3N18W
3N23W 3N35W...TOWARD THE EQUATOR ALONG 43W/44W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 21W AND
29W. DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN 8W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO SOUTH
TEXAS ALONG 100W. COMPARATIVELY LARGER SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CENTRAL U.S.A...WITH A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 21N97W 24N90W 27N83W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO THE
NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 90W AND 95W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE
SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 86W AND 95W.

HIGH CLOUDS ARE COVER THE GULF WATERS AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 96W. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF WATERS...INCLUDING THE AREA OF THE OIL RIGS/
PLATFORMS... TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE 87W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N74W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST...A COLD FRONT FROM 30N88W TO 25N90W
TO 19N95W. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

DISORGANIZED NORTHERLY-TO-NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 80W.

MIDDLE LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD...INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN LOW LEVEL
AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 5N75W IN COLOMBIA TO 3N80W...BEYOND
5N87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS RELATED DIRECTLY
TO THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 79W. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND 9 TO 13 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT ALSO WINDS
20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 TO 10 FEET ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 83W.

...HISPANIOLA...

MIDDLE LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA.

SKY CONDITIONS AND CURRENT WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS COVER SANTIAGO AND PUNTA CANA.
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE IN
SANTO DOMINGO.

THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWESTERLY
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA WITH A CENTRAL
AMERICA-TO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
START THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD ON TOP OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...
AND IT WILL END THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD COVERING HAITI. THE
GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY-TO-CARIBBEAN
SEA RIDGE.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 55W...ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS NEAR ANDROS ISLAND...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THIS AREA.
THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO A TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 26N70W AND 25N76W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 25N76W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
ANDROS ISLAND...TO 23N88W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
CLOUDINESS AND CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N54W 28N61W 24N68W 22N76W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR
BERMUDA WAS 0.29 INCHES...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01
KNHC...AT 13/0000 UTC.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 26N23W TO
15N25W.

A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO
28N55W 19N60W... ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N62W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT...N OF 25N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W N TO NE WINDS
30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. ELSEWHERE N OF 24N E OF A LINE
FROM 31N43W TO 24N48W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT
IN NE SWELL. REMAINDER AREA N OF 17N E OF A LINE FROM 31N46W TO
18N50W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL. A
SECOND AREA OF IMPORTANCE CONSISTS OF...A COLD FRONT FROM 31N61W
TO 25N73W THEN DISSIPATING STATIONARY TO 23N80W. N OF 28N W OF
FRONT TO 74W WINDS 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT IN NW SWELL. N
OF 29N WITHIN 210 NM E OF FRONT S TO SW WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS
8 TO 10 FT. A THIRD AREA OF CONCERN CONSIST OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR
LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 10N TO 23N BETWEEN 54W AND
63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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